NASHVILLE (RFD-TV) — Cotton harvest is in full swing, and growers across the country are closely monitoring production and exports as the market navigates seasonal trends.
“As we look at this U.S. crop, if we make upwards of 14 million barrels, that looks like we could have a 5 million bale carryout and -- you know, that’s going to keep us in the middle-to-low 60s as we go. You know, last week’s exports were 86,000 bales, which were down 54% from the previous week,” explained Market analyst Kevin Huddleston.
Huddleston told RFD-TV News that any news of trade deals could make the difference in how prices move through the fall.
“You just got to keep in mind China’s the driver here,” Huddleston said. “I know we sell like a broken record player, but we need a trade deal with China to get this thing turned around. We can get a trade deal. This thing could spark back up into the low 70s, maybe middle 70s.”
He said producers need to be ready to secure bookings when the time arrives.
“Producers really need to be ready that if we do get up into the low 70s, we need to be prepared to strike contracts,” he said.
Cotton Harvest Progress
In Texas, harvest is stretching west and south, while in Oklahoma, growers are juggling cotton with winter wheat planting.
Arkansas is seeing harvest speed up. Along the East Coast, states like North Carolina, South Carolina, and Virginia are keeping the harvest moving steadily.
Cheaper freight is helping exports move, especially corn, but weaker soybean demand looms large.
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Grain shippers face lower freight values thanks to weak soybean exports and strong rail service, but barge traffic and forward Gulf loadings suggest continued uncertainty as harvest ramps up.
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Producers may need to prepare for margin pressure in livestock feeding, while dairy farmers could benefit from stronger product demand.
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Farmers await concrete trade commitments from China. Until then, export prospects for soybeans, corn, and sorghum remain uncertain against strong South American competition.
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National Sorghum Producers CEO Tim Lust said farmers face a challenging year with strong supply, murky trade conditions, and uncertain access to their largest market: China.
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RFD-TV Markets Expert Tony St. James breaks down the state of agribusiness and harvest progress across the U.S. for the week of Monday, September 15, 2025.
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