COLUMBIA, Mo. (RFD News) — Imported lean beef may already be trading at roughly the discount President Donald Trump has cited, suggesting the 25 percent figure reflects existing market prices rather than a guaranteed reduction in retail beef costs.
University of Missouri livestock economist Elliot Dennis says domestic 90 percent lean trim is trading near $460 per hundredweight, compared with about $361 for imported lean trim. That puts the imported product roughly 25 percent below domestic values.
Dennis says lean imports serve a specific role in the beef system. Packers can blend imported lean trim with lower-value fatty domestic trim to produce ground beef, helping increase the value of material already coming from U.S. cattle.
The bigger concern may be timing. Dennis says the industry has long understood the role of lean imports, but a concentrated 90-day increase gives cattle producers and markets less time to adjust than a more predictable long-term strategy.
That makes the policy impact more complicated than simply assuming cheaper imported beef will translate directly into cheaper hamburger.
