NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD NEWS) — Nitrogen and phosphate markets are firming sharply heading into spring, raising cost concerns for producers already facing flat grain prices, according to analysis from Stone-X Vice President of Fertilizer Josh Linville.
India has announced another major urea purchase tender targeting 1.5 million tons for shipment through March 31. While widely expected, the move is seen as supportive of global prices and could tighten supplies just as North American farmers finalize spring planting. Urea values at the Gulf have climbed from a December low near $350 per ton to as high as $465. That compares with $389 a year ago. UAN is trading near $325 versus $265 last year, and Midwest ammonia averages $695 compared to $605 last year — even as grain prices remain lower year over year.
The Strait of Hormuz remains a key geopolitical risk. Three of the top ten global urea exporters and three of the top ten ammonia exporters depend on that corridor, along with Saudi phosphate shipments. Any disruption could significantly impact fertilizer flows.
Phosphate markets are also firm. Global prices are up roughly $20, and limited Chinese exports — typically 8 to 10 million tons annually but just 5.3 million last year — leave a potential supply gap. High ammonia and sulfur costs are limiting downside price potential, even if values soften.
Potash remains comparatively stable and better aligned with grain economics.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Nitrogen and phosphate markets are tightening ahead of spring, keeping fertilizer costs elevated while crop prices lag.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist
A new study found that retaining the EPA’s half-RIN credit protects soybean demand, farm income, and crushing-sector strength while preserving biofuel market flexibility.
December 15, 2025 12:15 PM
·
“I’m not sure where this bridge goes,” trader Brady Huck with Advanced Trading told RFD-TV News earlier this week.
December 12, 2025 03:32 PM
·
Strong Farm Credit finances help cushion producers, but prolonged low crop margins could strain renewals in 2026.
December 12, 2025 11:42 AM
·
American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) economist Danny Munch joined us on Thursday’s Market Day Report to break down the scope of the U.S. Christmas Tree industry and what growers are up against.
December 11, 2025 01:53 PM
·
Canadian tariffs would raise costs for potash, ammonia, and UAN, increasing spring fertilizer risk.
December 11, 2025 01:16 PM
·
Lewis Williamson with HTS Commodities breaks down the outlook on grain storage and domestic supply chain strength as producers weigh planting decisions with forthcoming federal aid.
December 11, 2025 01:11 PM
·
Experts say flooding the zone with more money could have unintented consequences without opening new markets for planted crops and inputs under significant pressure.
December 11, 2025 12:25 PM
·
Outdated reporting thresholds reduce cash-market visibility and increase the urgency of comprehensive Mandatory Price Reporting reform.
December 10, 2025 07:00 PM
·
American Soybean Association President Caleb Ragland shares the soybean sector outlook following the announcement of farm aid to offset losses for U.S. row crop growers.
December 10, 2025 11:33 AM
·
