NASHVILLE, TENN. (RFD NEWS) — The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report for July paints a mixed picture for U.S. agriculture heading into the 2026/27 marketing year.
Wheat production is projected to fall to its lowest level since 1970, while stronger demand is tightening corn supplies despite another large crop. Soybean exports are helping offset increased production; cotton growers face mounting supplies and price pressure; and tighter beef production continues to support historically strong cattle prices.
U.S. Wheat Production Forecast Lowest Since 1970 Crop
U.S. wheat supplies are tightening after USDA lowered production expectations and projected the smallest crop in more than five decades.
The July World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report forecasts 2026/27 U.S. wheat production at 1.536 billion bushels, down 7 million from June and the lowest since 1970/71. Total supplies were reduced by 22 million bushels because of lower beginning stocks and production.
Winter wheat saw the largest adjustment. USDA lowered production by 39 million bushels to 990 million, mainly from smaller Hard Red Winter and Soft Red Winter crops. Other spring wheat is forecast at 475 million bushels, while Durum production is projected at 71 million.
Domestic use and exports were unchanged, leaving ending stocks at 722 million bushels, down 22 percent from last year. USDA kept the projected season-average farm price at $6.00 per bushel, compared with $5.06 last year.
Global wheat stocks also moved lower as consumption increased and supplies tightened.
Corn Demand Tightens Stocks Despite Larger Crop Forecast
Stronger corn demand is tightening the U.S. balance sheet even as farmers prepare for another large crop.
USDA’s July WASDE report projects smaller supplies, stronger exports, and lower ending stocks for the 2026/27 marketing year. Beginning stocks were reduced by 125 million bushels after stronger feed use during the current marketing year.
USDA says feed and residual use reached more than 5.6 billion bushels through the first three quarters, compared with about 4.8 billion last year. Corn used for ethanol was lowered by 25 million bushels based on recent production data.
New-crop yield remains unchanged at 183 bushels per acre, but demand is improving. USDA raised exports by 50 million bushels because of continued global demand strength.
The stronger use and lower supplies reduced projected ending stocks by 170 million bushels to 1.8 billion. The season-average farm price remains unchanged at $4.40 per bushel.
Soybean Exports Offset Larger Production in USDA Forecast
A larger soybean crop is being balanced by stronger demand as USDA raises export expectations.
The July WASDE report projects U.S. soybean production at 4.475 billion bushels, up 40 million from June. The increase comes from higher harvested acreage, while yield remains unchanged at 53 bushels per acre.
Total soybean supplies increased 30 million bushels because higher production was partly offset by lower beginning stocks. USDA also raised soybean exports by 30 million bushels because of increased supplies and stronger global demand.
China remains a major factor in the global outlook. USDA increased soybean imports and crush expectations for China while keeping year-over-year soybean meal demand growth steady.
The higher supply was matched by stronger use, leaving projected U.S. ending stocks unchanged at 310 million bushels. The season-average farm price also remains unchanged at $11.40 per bushel.
Larger Cotton Crop Adds Pressure To Ending Stocks
U.S. cotton producers are facing a larger crop outlook as supplies continue to build.
USDA’s July WASDE report raised 2026/27 cotton production by 400,000 bales to 13.7 million. The increase follows higher acreage estimates from the June Acreage report.
Planted area is now estimated at 9.85 million acres, up two percent from the previous forecast. Harvested area also increased, while the national average yield moved six pounds higher to 872 pounds per acre.
With production increasing and demand unchanged, projected ending stocks rose 400,000 bales to 4.1 million. The ending stocks-to-use ratio increased to 29.5 percent.
The projected season-average price remains unchanged at 73 cents per pound. Globally, production also increased as larger crops are expected in Brazil, the United States, Turkey, and Central Asia.
Tighter Beef Supplies Support Higher Cattle Price Outlook
Smaller beef supplies continue to support cattle markets as USDA lowers production expectations.
The July WASDE report reduced 2026 beef production because of slower steer and heifer slaughter through the end of the year. Increased cow slaughter was not enough to offset fewer fed cattle moving through the system.
USDA also lowered expected dressed weights during the second and third quarters. The tighter supply picture continues into 2027, with fewer feedlot placements and slower marketings expected to reduce cattle slaughter.
Cattle prices were raised for the third quarter of 2026 after strong June markets. USDA also increased 2027 price expectations because of lower beef production.
Pork production was reduced slightly as lower expected slaughter outweighed heavier weights. Broiler production increased as producers responded to stronger margins.
