Lower Stocks Offer Potential Support for Cotton Prices

Smaller supplies could support cotton prices despite weak demand.

Cotton Plant. Cotton picker working in a large cotton field_Photo by MagioreStockStudio via Adobe Stock.jpg

Photo by MagioreStockStudio via Adobe Stock

NASHVILLE, TENN. (RFD NEWS) — Cotton producers enter the 2026 season facing another year of negative margins, but tightening global supplies could eventually stabilize prices.

Economists at the National Cotton Council say the industry is coming off a fourth consecutive year of unfavorable returns, driven by weak demand and high production costs. The group projects U.S. cotton acreage at 9.0 million acres, down 3.2 percent, and production of roughly 12.7 million bales after abandonment.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Smaller supplies could support cotton prices despite weak demand.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist

Domestic textile use remains weak, with U.S. mills expected to consume 1.55 million bales, slightly below last year. However, exports are projected to rise as global consumption increases to 120 million bales while world production declines to 114.1 million bales. As a result, U.S. ending stocks are forecast to fall to 3.5 million bales, and global stocks outside China are forecast to drop to their lowest level since 2016.

Trade policy and global economic growth remain major uncertainties for the export-dependent cotton sector.

Related Stories
Even in this strong market, some beef producers are leaving money on the table by not following proven marketing practices.
New U.S. fees on Chinese-owned and built ships took effect overnight, marking the latest escalation in maritime trade tensions between Washington and Beijing.
President Trump is expected to press Argentina to take a tougher stance on China in exchange for political and economic support.
Treat storage as risk management and logistics, and budget to break even since export growth is unlikely to absorb bigger U.S. corn and soybean crops.
The FAA’s proposed rule to allow drones to operate beyond visual line of sight (BVLOS) could soon revolutionize how farmers and ranchers manage their land.
Nick Andersen, Nationwide’s VP of Agribusiness Claims, shares tips for managing weather-related risks in agriculture using their new Hail and Wind Alert Program.
“Good flies? Is that like a good fire ant?” Miller said. “I don’t know what a good fly is. I don’t know if they’re afraid to kill house flies or stable flies, but I’m ready to kill the screwworm fly.”
Tidal Grow Agri-Science joins us to celebrate Global Fertilizer Day, sharing how innovation continues to drive American agriculture forward.
The American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) is urging Congress and the Trump Administration to act quickly on behalf of American agriculture.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Reliable, clearly graded middle meats still anchor demand; programs that deliver consistent eating quality and simple, confidence-building menus capture more repeat visits—and more value—back through the beef chain.
Prepare for tighter cash flow, delayed capital buys, and policy-driven risk management this fall.
Plan for a cooler global trade market in 2026 with tighter margins on exports, potential rate shifts, and premiums for reliable deliveries into Asian and African growth markets.
George Baird, with the American Society of Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers (ASFMRA), joins us with updates on how this year’s rice harvest is shaping up.
Crop insurance remains a vital tool for managing climate-driven risk.
Expect firm demand for dependable HRS and SW, steady movement in HRW, more sorting on SRW, and selective bids on durum until full milling results are released.