NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — Small-business sentiment dipped in October, and the cracks show up first in ag towns. The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Small Business Optimism Index eased to 98.2 (still a tick above its 52-year average). At the same time, uncertainty fell sharply — a reminder that sentiment is cooling even as owners gain a bit more clarity.
For rural America, where equipment dealers, feed suppliers, truckers, welders, and Main Street shops power farm country, softer sales and thin margins are tightening the screws on the services that producers rely on.
Under the hood, labor quality topped the worry list: 32 percent reported unfilled openings, and 27 percent named labor quality as their number-one problem —the highest since 2021. Sales momentum weakened (net −13 percent over three months) and profit trends deteriorated (net −25 percent), even as fewer firms raised prices (net 21 percent) and planned hikes eased. Capital outlays were anemic (23 percent of the plan’s six-month spending), borrowing slipped to 23 percent, and the average short-term loan rate hovered near 8.7 percent. Supply-chain pressure continued to ease, but it still affected 60 percent of firms.
For farm-adjacent businesses, that mix points to tighter staffing, cautious inventories, and selective investment — conditions that can lengthen repair queues, delay parts, and temper custom-work capacity. Producers may see steadier posted prices locally, but a thinner service bench and slower turnaround times as Main Street rides out slower sales and higher financing costs.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Rural businesses report softer sales, tougher hiring, and restrained investment — a backdrop that can pinch farm support capacity even if posted prices cool.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Specialist
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