Mexican Avocado Volume Drop Sends Market Prices Higher

Avocado growers and buyers face sharp price swings when Mexican supply changes faster than alternative sources can respond.

avocado orchard_Photo by EVOGRAF.MX_AdobeStock_414334282.png

Photo by EVOGRAF.MX via Adobe Stock

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD NEWS) — U.S. avocado buyers saw sharply higher prices last week as Mexican supplies declined during the transition toward summer production. USDA reported average two-layer carton prices climbed nearly 48 percent in two weeks, from $25.61 to $37.82.

USDA data show Mexican avocado movement fell from 65.1 million pounds in the week ending May 2 to 48.6 million pounds two weeks later, before recovering slightly to 50.6 million pounds by May 23.

USDA’s Economic Research Service reports that Mexico accounted for 83 percent of fresh avocado import volume in 2025, leaving smaller origins limited in their ability to quickly replace lower shipments from Mexico. In addition, the country remains the dominant supplier for U.S. consumers.

California fruit may help ease the transition. The California Avocado Commission projects a 330-million-pound crop this year, including about 310 million pounds of Hass avocados, with shipments normally strengthening into summer.

The recent move shows how quickly price risk can rise when supply shifts in a produce market dependent on a single major origin.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Avocado growers and buyers face sharp price swings when Mexican supply changes faster than alternative sources can respond.
Tony St. James, RFD News Markets Specialist
Related Stories
StoneX’s Josh Linville discusses USDA’s efforts to boost domestic fertilizer production and his outlook on supply and prices.
The Texas Department of Agriculture confirmed a New World Screwworm case about 119 miles from the Texas border, near Zapata, Texas, and north and west of the Rio Grande Valley.
Domestic demand policy may play a larger role if export competition continues to limit price recovery.
Farm Bureau Economist Dr. Faith Parum discusses USDA’s efforts to expand fertilizer capacity, signals for farm profitability, and AFBF’s Farm Bill expectations.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Dr. Robert Ellis joins us to discuss economic challenges in agriculture, available resources for farmers, and ways producers can evaluate practices to strengthen their operations.
While there is no guarantee a House vote will happen today, the measure has officially been placed on the congressional calendar.
USDA’s first 2026/27 outlook shows tighter supplies across several markets, led by wheat, corn, cotton, rice, beef, and sugar.
President Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent are expected to discuss commodities, trade and regional stability during meetings in Asia.
Strong export demand is supportive, but higher freight costs may pressure basis and grain movement margins.