LUBBOCK, Texas (RFD-TV) — Profitable milk and cheaper feed in 2024 set the stage for a supply surge that’s now weighing on prices — and rippling into the beef complex. U.S. dairy cow numbers climbed to 9.52 million in August, the highest since 1993, with Texas at 699,000 head — the most since 1958. With more cows on line, processors are expanding capacity alongside them.
Output per cow is also up. August production reached 2,050 pounds per head — a record for the month and 1.3 percent above August 2024 — pushing three-month milk production 3.6 percent higher year over year. As product piles up, pricing has slipped: 40-lb cheddar blocks have ranged from $1.95 to $1.70 per pound and sit roughly 30 cents below last year; butter fell from $2.50 to about $1.70 by mid-October; and NFDM is near $1.14 — it’s low for 2025.
Those declines are flowing back to mailbox checks while cull dynamics tighten the beef pipeline. Beef cow slaughter remains lower, but dairy culling has matched last year since mid-year and could increase as margins narrow and cull values stay strong — absent any government buyout, the market will do the rationing.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Prepare for softer milk checks into winter, watch cull-cow values and timing, and stress-test cash flow as product prices recalibrate.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Expert
If chocolate milke doesn’t come from brown cows (and strawberry milk certainly doesn’t come from pink ones), then where does it come from? Get the scoop!
January 24, 2024 10:00 AM
At Florida dairy operation M&B Products, we learn about bottling milk, lactose intolerance, and so much more!
January 23, 2024 03:57 PM
December 14, 2023 05:22 PM
·
November 10, 2023 02:32 PM
The FAO Food Price Index for October 2023 is out. Where do global food prices stand, and which categories saw the largest gains?
November 03, 2023 01:42 PM
·
Falling feed costs and strong demand for butter could be good news for dairy farmers looking to get their finances back on track.
November 03, 2023 12:38 PM
·
Where the Food Comes From producer Donna Sanders takes us along on a behind-the-scenes look at filming the show’s newest episode, “Clemson Blue,” where university cheesemakers reveal how they put the “blue” in their award-winning blue cheese.
October 26, 2023 09:00 AM
·
It is in there, the mold — those rich blue veins in creamy blue cheese that make you either love it or loathe it — but how does it get there? This bonus scene from “Clemson Dairy,” Season 4, Episode 4 of
Where the Food Comes From, explains how and why that happens.
October 25, 2023 09:00 AM
·
No, it is not some new college course — Clemson has been making blue cheese since 1941, and the product has developed a worldwide following and won some pretty big awards. With good reason — it is fantastic stuff. It is also fascinating to see how it is made. Check out this sneak peek look at the latest episode of Where the Food Comes From, “Clemson Blue.”
October 24, 2023 11:32 AM
·
