FARGO, NORTH DAKOTA (RFD News) — A new analysis from North Dakota State University is modeling how fertilizer prices could respond to potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
The study outlines three possible scenarios, including a quick reopening of shipping routes, continued contested transit, and an extended disruption through the fall.
Under the central scenario, urea prices could peak near $784 per ton by mid-2026, while DAP could rise above $860 later in the year.
Even under the most optimistic scenario, the analysis projects prices would remain above pre-crisis levels through at least 2027.
The report also notes differences between crop prices and input costs that could impact overall affordability for farmers.
Related Stories
University of Wisconsin-Madison’s John Shutske says simple safety habits can help prevent some of agriculture’s most common injuries.
Cattle producers met with lawmakers to discuss the issues continuing to impact ranchers across the country.
Commissioner Sid Miller says productive farmland, water resources, and rural infrastructure are increasingly under pressure as data centers continue growing across Texas.
The Meat Institute says meat sales reached a record $112 billion last year as protein demand remained strong nationwide.
The Livestock Conservancy says protecting rare breeds helps preserve genetic diversity and long-term agricultural resilience.
Dr. Joana Colussi says differences in input costs, trade conditions, and second-crop risks continue shaping profitability in both countries.
