NASHVILLE, TENN. (RFD-TV) — Producers are closing out 2025 facing deep financial losses and no approved disaster aid from Washington, even as projected income shortfalls exceed last year’s. High input costs and weak commodity prices are squeezing margins across nearly every major crop, leaving many farms relying on operating credit and off-farm income to bridge into 2026.
Analysis from Dr. Bart Fischer at Texas A&M’s Agriculture and Food Policy Center shows all major commodities tracked by USDA are projected to lose more than $100 per acre this year, with rice losses roughly doubling last year’s levels. Soybeans are the lone crop with slightly better price prospects thanks to a new trade agreement with China, yet projected returns remain firmly negative.
On the ground, growers are wrestling with cash-flow shortfalls, bigger operating loans, and pressure from rising land rents and stubborn input costs. After eight years of ad hoc disaster aid, many producers are wary of more one-off checks, but see few alternatives in the current price environment.
Regions heavily dependent on row crops are feeling the most acute strain, while specialty crops such as sugar also face substantial losses that fall outside traditional commodity support benchmarks. Meanwhile, lingering trade uncertainty continues to cloud export-driven areas.
Looking ahead, the “One Big Beautiful Bill” Act (OBBBA) will strengthen the farm safety net beginning with the 2025 crop year, but most payments won’t arrive until October 2026. Without interim assistance, Fischer warns the gap between current losses and future support could force more restructuring, asset sales, or exits from farming.
Shaun Haney joined RFD News to discuss the potential impact of the Trump-Xi summit uncertainty, ongoing agricultural trade talks, and why geopolitical developments could carry important implications for farmers and global commodity markets.
