NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — Fertilizer availability and pricing could swing sharply if new U.S. sanctions on Russia take effect, with the impact varying widely by product. Russia is a major exporter of nitrogen and potash, and any disruption would immediately be reflected in dealer inventories and farm budgets this fall.
According to Josh Linville with StoneX, the most significant vulnerability is UAN: the global market is small, western buyers dominate demand, and the U.S. relies heavily on Russian tons.
A U.S.-only block would likely drive UAN values higher and keep them elevated until trade returns to normal. Urea would likely see a short-lived price shock; Russia could redirect flows to Brazil and India, easing the spike within a few months. NH3 (ammonia) appears to be the least exposed, with no Russian tons flowing to the U.S. and exports still below pre-war levels. Phosphate effects on the U.S. should be minimal due to existing countervailing duties, unless a broad global cutoff occurs. Potash poses a moderate risk—Canada can backfill, but coastal regions could feel it first.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Prepare for acute UAN risk and a brief urea shock; maintain steady ammonia and phosphate plans and monitor potash basis on the coasts.
Elizabeth Strom with the American Society of Farm Managers & Rural Appraisers (ASFMRA) joined us to share the latest on harvest progress and market activity in her area.
October 22, 2025 03:12 PM
·
“Farmers for Free Trade” warns that disaster is brewing as President Trump’s trade policy is causing farm input costs to rise even more.
October 22, 2025 12:07 PM
·
NCBA CEO Colin Woodall says more conversations need to occur with stakeholders present surrounding President Trump’s proposal to lower consumer beef prices with Argentinian imports.
October 22, 2025 11:53 AM
·
October 21, 2025 06:18 PM
·
While artificial intelligence, or AI, is reshaping both jobs and messaging in agriculture, CoBank data suggests human expertise still matters.
October 21, 2025 02:29 PM
·
Bubba and Amy Miller run Miller Cattle Company in Eros, Louisiana. After visiting other homesteading fairs, they decided to put on their own.
October 21, 2025 02:28 PM
·
The new AFBF Women in Agriculture survey is accepting responses from women in the industry across the United States now through March 31.
October 21, 2025 01:56 PM
·
University of Nebraska–Lincoln (UNL) representative Dr. Dirac Twidwell joins us with the latest on woody encroachment conservation efforts in the Great Plains.
October 21, 2025 01:42 PM
·
API said it stands ready to work with Congress to develop a balanced approach to E15 legislation that promotes fuel choice, supports investment certainty, and contributes to a stable and fair marketplace for American consumers.
October 21, 2025 12:39 PM
·
