WASHINGTON (RFD-TV)— Allowing year-round sales of E15, a gasoline blend containing 15 percent ethanol, could deliver billions in economic gains and support thousands of jobs nationwide, according to a new study (PDF version) from the Renewable Fuels Association (RFA) and National Corn Growers Association (NCGA).
The analysis, conducted using the IMPLAN economic model, found that full adoption of year-round E15 would boost U.S. GDP by $25.8 billion annually, create nearly 129,000 jobs, and generate $10.3 billion in additional household income. Increased demand for ethanol and corn production would drive most of the gain, and the most substantial impacts would be seen by ethanol plants, farmers, and related industries.
“The study findings support what corn growers have been saying all along, and that is that higher sales of corn ethanol are good for the economy, and that is particularly true for rural America,” said Illinois farmer and NCGA President Kenneth Hartman Jr. “Given the state of the farm economy and the focus on increasing jobs available to Americans, we would encourage Congress to act quickly and pass legislation that allows consumers to access E15 year-round.”
Consumers would also benefit at the pump since E15 is typically priced about 25 cents less per gallon than standard gasoline, the report noted. Infrastructure upgrades are expected to be manageable, especially with federal funding available through USDA programs.
An interim scenario, assuming more modest adoption, still projected significant benefits—an additional $2.5 billion in GDP and 11,900 jobs. Advocates argue that passing legislation such as the Nationwide Consumer and Fuel Retailer Choice Act would lock in these benefits by eliminating seasonal restrictions on E15 sales.
Boosting Domestic Biofuel Production: Will Slow and Steady Sector Growth Win the Race?
Sam Hudson with Cornbelt Marketing says growing demand and international interest could give the sector a boost. He said the U.S.'s slow growth in the biofuel market and legislative red tape might be a positive if they are ready to meet market demand when the time is right.
“Well, this seems like you’re getting more confidence in organic growth,” Hudson explained. “You know, we sit here and wait for all this policy and legislation. We continue to kind of, you know, look at the point along the way where the most positive thing about our biofuel program is everybody else’s [biofuel programs] around the world. Because, I think, they’re taking notice of that and getting things going, maybe a little bit more quickly.”
He hopes the time and legislative effort are well spent, positioning the industry for success rather than creating more unnecessary barriers if U.S. trade representatives are not able to create export demand and smooth over our relationship with China.
“And so, we’ll see what some of our targets look like. What small refinery exemptions look like,” Hudson continued. “But that’s always continually offering a glass ceiling. If we can start to put some export demand back together on top of all this, then the market is going to take acute notice of that. So, keep an eye on that as we go into harvest. And you know, we’ll see what China wants to do here with these meetings on Friday.”
Long Road to Year-Round E15 Sales
Congress is now eyeing year-round E15 approval on the federal level, which is a rare issue up for debate this session that is receiving strong bipartisan support, Rep. Adrian Smith, the Republican from Nebraska, told RFD-TV News on Monday.
This move, in large part, is to comply with President Donald Trump’s executive order on energy, “Unleashing American Energy,” which includes a provision to ensure year-round sales of E15 in an effort to address gasoline shortages while boosting ethanol demand. This also follows his 2019 effort to allow year-round E15 sales, which was overturned in court. Ethanol supporters, like Growth Energy, told DTN that this is a step toward reducing consumer costs.
So far, 49 out of 50 U.S. States (all but California) have moved to allow E15 sales during some of the year. Of those, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has only sanctioned year-round E15 in eight states. In the majority, its sale is limited to the summer months due to past sustainability concerns about higher ethanol concentrations leading to increased volatility in hotter weather, which could have a negative impact on air quality.
However, ethanol industry leaders argue that science has not only disproved this, but actually proved the opposite, claiming it is less volatile than standard gasoline.
Counting on California
The Golden State may also change course on its adoption of E15. Last week, state lawmakers sent a bill to California Gov. Gavin Newsom as part of the state administration’s push to lower gas prices, which typically hover over a dollar higher than the national average for a single gallon of gasoline.
Right now, California is the only U.S. State where E15 cannot be sold. Another study from the University of California found E15 decreased emissions more than California’s reformulated gasoline.
Renewable Fuels Association (RFA) leaders told RFD-TV that California’s adoption alone would have a marked effect on the U.S. economy and provide a needed outlet for U.S. crops.
“That adds another 500, almost 600 million gallons of new demand for American ethanol, when California adopts E15,” explained RFS Senior Vice President Troy Bredenkamp. “It’s 200 million bushels of new demand for new corn grind. So that is significant when you’re looking at one of the biggest crops, maybe the biggest crop in history, coming in this fall.”
Not to mention, national E15 adoption in any capacity would be a massive relief to the commodity crop growers facing record supply, shaky demand, and uncertain times.
A “Golden” Lining for Commodity Crop Growers
A significant boost to domestic biofuel production could become a “golden” lining for growers waiting for the Trump Administration to close the “dire” international trade deficit on key commodities, many of whom are about to bin record crops, without a major buyer lined up.
“Right now, we are looking for any wins that we can get,” said Illinois Farm Bureau President Brian Duncan. “And certainly a long-term, stable win would be better than one announcement of a flash sale, but anything that could help move the psychology of the market, I think, would be beneficial.”
Another glimmer of hope emerges with E15 as other issues, such as skyrocketing machinery costs and rising diesel demand, cast a shadow on this year’s harvest progress.
