NASHVILLE, TENN. (RFD NEWS) — U.S. rice producers are heading into 2026 facing lower prices even as supplies tighten, according to University of Arkansas economist Ryan Loy.
U.S. rice acreage totaled about 2.8 million acres in 2025, with roughly 2.7 million harvested after spring flooding reduced plantings across the Midsouth. Long-grain ending stocks are projected near 34.6 million bushels — similar to last year — but the average farm price is forecast to drop to about $10.50 per hundredweight from roughly $14.00 the previous marketing year.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Global surplus outweighs tighter U.S. supplies, pressuring prices.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist
Global conditions are driving the decline. Worldwide production is expected to be near record levels, while demand lags, creating a third consecutive year of surplus. Large exportable supplies from Asia — especially India — continue pressuring prices across major exporters.
Competition remains strongest in Western Hemisphere markets where U.S. rice competes with South American crops. A smaller Mercosur crop could help support market share, though high beginning stocks in Brazil limit upside potential. U.S. long-grain exports during the first half of the marketing year already fell 31 percent from a year earlier.
The U.S. has a bountiful corn supply, but markets are waiting for the January WASDE Report, which will include updated yield estimates.
December 15, 2025 11:34 AM
·
Freight Softens as Producers Plan 2026 Budgets Nationwide
December 15, 2025 10:48 AM
·
“I’m not sure where this bridge goes,” trader Brady Huck with Advanced Trading told RFD-TV News earlier this week.
December 12, 2025 03:32 PM
·
Plan for sharp, short-term volatility after unexpected outages; permanent closures rarely trigger major price spread disruptions.
December 12, 2025 12:25 PM
·
Ethanol output softened, but underlying supply-and-demand trends indicate stable longer-term use despite short-term volatility in blending and exports.
December 12, 2025 11:47 AM
·
American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) economist Danny Munch joined us on Thursday’s Market Day Report to break down the scope of the U.S. Christmas Tree industry and what growers are up against.
December 11, 2025 01:53 PM
·
Rising beef supplies and lower cattle prices, weaker hog markets, and softening dairy prices will shape producer margins heading into 2026.
December 11, 2025 01:32 PM
·
Canadian tariffs would raise costs for potash, ammonia, and UAN, increasing spring fertilizer risk.
December 11, 2025 01:16 PM
·
Lewis Williamson with HTS Commodities breaks down the outlook on grain storage and domestic supply chain strength as producers weigh planting decisions with forthcoming federal aid.
December 11, 2025 01:11 PM
·
