LUBBOCK, Texas (RFD-TV) — Milk prices are falling rapidly as expanding supplies overwhelm seasonal demand, creating growing financial pressure for U.S. dairy producers. According to Dr. David Anderson, livestock economist with Texas A&M AgriLife Extension, the usual holiday demand boost for butter and cheese failed to materialize this fall as milk production surged to multi-decade highs.
Strong milk prices in 2024 and lower feed costs encouraged herd expansion, while added processing capacity supported higher output. High cattle prices also contributed, boosting dairy revenues through higher cull cow values and record prices for beef-on-dairy calves. By September 2025, the U.S. dairy herd reached 9.581 million head — the largest since the early 1990s — while milk production per cow continued to climb.
Higher cow numbers and improved productivity pushed October milk output up nearly 4 percent from a year earlier. As supplies built, dairy product prices slid sharply. Butter, cheese, and nonfat dry milk prices all dropped well below last year, pulling Class III and Class IV milk prices lower.
Some herd contraction is expected, though strong cull and calf values may slow supply adjustments.
Delaware FarmHER Katie Evans turns “ugly” produce into delicious treats through her nationally recognized brand, The Frozen Farmer
October 07, 2025 03:12 PM
·
Key signs of the U.S. beef herd’s recovery are improved pasture conditions, lower feed costs, and increased regulatory alignment and support for producers to implement targeted grazing practices.
October 07, 2025 12:35 PM
·
Congress has just over a month of working days left for the year. Plan for uneven USDA service until funding is restored, and closely monitor Farm Bill talks, as avoiding Permanent Law before January 1 is the single biggest risk to markets and milk prices.
October 07, 2025 11:09 AM
·
Mexico’s tougher, two-step treatment and added checkpoints are catching cases before they can spread—good news for producers near the border.
October 07, 2025 10:55 AM
·
Jack Daniel’s will end its Cow Feeder Program, which served around 100 livestock operations near the distillery, and redirect spent grains to its anaerobic digester.
October 06, 2025 12:33 PM
·
Beef demand could be influencing other economic sectors, as consumers adjust spending habits to prioritize higher-priced beef products.
October 02, 2025 01:39 PM
·
AFBF Economist Bearnt Nelson joins us with insights into current turkey flock sizes, HPAI concerns, and production impacts on holiday demand.
October 02, 2025 01:25 PM
·
“It, all of a sudden, says that tracking and fighting hunger is not a priority, apparently, at the federal level.”
October 02, 2025 01:22 PM
·
FarmHER Laura Adams raises cattle in Georgia, overcoming family tragedy with the help of Farm Dog of the Year, Skippy.
October 01, 2025 11:15 AM
·
