NASHVILLE, TENN. (RFD-TV) — For decades, rural and agriculture-driven economies have shown a consistent pattern: they tend to weaken months — and sometimes years — before the broader U.S. economy does. Looking across the past 30 years, downturns in farm income, credit conditions, and commodity prices have frequently served as early indicators of national slowdowns. Today, many of those same indicators are again flashing amber across key regions.
In West Texas, cotton producers are coming off improved yields but still face thin margins at current prices. Cattle strength provides support, but the overall cash-flow picture remains cautious, especially in crop-dependent counties. In Iowa, record-large corn and soybean supplies are keeping grain prices under pressure while hog margins stabilize from prior lows. It’s not a crisis, but it is a squeeze — and one that arrives typically well before similar stress appears in the national economy.
Credit data reinforces the on-the-ground reality. Across multiple Federal Reserve districts, ag bankers report softer repayment rates, elevated carryover debt, and flattening collateral values. The Rural Mainstreet Index — a multi-state gauge of retail and credit conditions in farm country — has spent much of the year below growth-neutral, a reliable sign that rural Main Streets are slowing even as national economic data remains mixed.
Nationally, livestock receipts and government payments help lift headline farm income, masking regional strain. But the underlying pattern looks familiar: crop-heavy regions like the High Plains and the Corn Belt are softening first, just as they have ahead of past economic downturns.
Farm-Level Takeaway: While agriculture doesn’t predict every recession, the sector’s long history of turning down before the broader economy gives today’s rural signals added weight. With crop margins tightening and credit conditions cooling, farm country once again appears to be moving ahead of the national trend — and the direction is downward.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Specialist
It is in there, the mold — those rich blue veins in creamy blue cheese that make you either love it or loathe it — but how does it get there? This bonus scene from “Clemson Dairy,” Season 4, Episode 4 of
Where the Food Comes From, explains how and why that happens.
October 25, 2023 09:00 AM
·
No, it is not some new college course — Clemson has been making blue cheese since 1941, and the product has developed a worldwide following and won some pretty big awards. With good reason — it is fantastic stuff. It is also fascinating to see how it is made. Check out this sneak peek look at the latest episode of Where the Food Comes From, “Clemson Blue.”
October 24, 2023 11:32 AM
·
The machines do all the work at Hickory Hill Milk in South Carolina, and the pampered cows get on-demand service. The team at Where the Food Comes From shares a special, behind-the-scenes account filming the show’s newest episode, Robot Dairy, premiering this Friday, Oct. 20, 2023, at 9:30 p.m. ET on RFD-TV!
October 19, 2023 09:00 AM
·
How does a robot milk a cow?
October 18, 2023 09:00 AM
·
The machines do all the work at Hickory Hill Milk in South Carolina, where the pampered cows get on-demand service. They make a premium cream line of milk you still have to shake. It is so good it is used to make the world-famous Clemson blue cheese.
October 17, 2023 01:55 PM
·
Many turn to the online resale market when economic times are uncertain, buying items for cheaper prices or selling quality items for extra money. Reselling secondhand items is also an efficient way to declutter and get some cash back for valuable items you no longer need.
October 13, 2023 04:57 PM
·
Today’s blog post by RFD-TV Agri-Legal Expert Roger McEowen takes a look at the “preferential payment rule,” a unique bankruptcy provision that can come as a suprise to farmers in financial distress.
October 13, 2023 10:54 AM
·
Researchers out of the United Kingdom are using gene editing technology to help make High-Path Avian Flu less of a threat to poultry.
October 12, 2023 12:38 PM
·
With 2023 projected to be a difficult year for agricultural producers, Chapter 12 filings may increase. One of the requirements to get a Chapter 12 reorganization plan approved is that be filed in “good faith.” In this blog post, RFD-TV Legal Contributor Roger A. McEowen explains exactly what farmers need to know about the process.
October 04, 2023 02:57 PM
·
