NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — The September NFIB Small Business Optimism Index slipped to 98.8 after three months of gains, while the Uncertainty Index jumped to 100 — one of the highest readings in decades.
For rural America, where farm supply dealers, repair shops, haulers, and service businesses anchor local economies, softer sentiment and higher uncertainty can translate into tighter margins, cautious hiring, and more selective inventory buying as harvest cash flows move through towns.
Price pressure remains a headwind. A net 24 percent of owners raised prices, and 31 percent plan to do so in the next three months; 14 percent named inflation as their top problem.
Supply chain effects touched 64 percent of firms, up 10 points. Inventory readings swung sharply, with a net negative 7% calling stocks “too low” — the largest monthly decline on record.
Labor stayed tight: 32 percent reported unfilled openings; among those hiring, 88 percent saw few or no qualified applicants. Compensation rose at a net 31 percent of firms, with 19 percent planning increases.
Credit and investment conditions are steady but not strong. A net 7 percent said their last loan was harder to get, and the average short-term rate rose to 8.8 percent. Capital outlays held flat, and sales trends stayed negative on net — signals that rural main streets may lean conservative on equipment, vehicles, and expansion through winter.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Expect firmer shop prices, leaner inventories, and selective hiring in ag-adjacent businesses — plan parts, service, and financing needs earlier.
As domestic production and blending slowed, export demand remained a clear bright spot.
January 11, 2026 12:00 PM
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Protein markets are fragmenting. Beef is supply-driven and more structurally expensive, whereas pork and poultry remain price-competitive.
January 10, 2026 07:00 AM
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Tight fed supplies shift margin risk to packers, strengthening cattle price leverage but increasing volatility.
January 09, 2026 03:36 PM
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Expanding chicken supplies are likely to keep prices under pressure in early 2026 despite steady demand growth.
January 09, 2026 11:00 AM
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Reduced winter placements indicate tighter fed cattle supplies and greater leverage during peak-demand months.
January 09, 2026 06:00 AM
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AFBF Economist Faith Parum provides analysis and perspective on the Farmer Bridge Assistance Program—what commodity growers should know and potential remedies for producers facing crop losses where that aid falls short.
January 08, 2026 02:45 PM
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Federal nutrition policy is signaling a stronger demand for whole foods produced by U.S. farmers and ranchers. Consumer-facing guidance favors animal protein, but institutional demand may change little under existing saturated fat limits.
January 08, 2026 11:42 AM
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Farmer Bridge payments are being used primarily to reduce debt and protect cash flow, not drive new spending. Curt Blades with the Association of Equipment Manufacturers joined us to provide insight into the ag equipment market and the factors influencing sales.
January 08, 2026 08:00 AM
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Rail strength is helping stabilize grain movement, but river and export slowdowns continue to limit overall logistics momentum.
January 08, 2026 06:00 AM
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