NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD NEWS) — Farmers heading into the 2026/27 marketing year face another season of strong production potential but limited pricing power, according to economists with Terrain. Large carry-in stocks across major crops are expected to keep supply comfortable and cap upside price movement unless weather or demand shifts meaningfully.
Terrain’s Early Grain Outlook projects corn planted area at 94 million acres with a trend yield of 183.5 bushels per acre, pushing production above 15.8 billion bushels. With beginning stocks above 2.15 billion bushels, total supplies could exceed 18 billion. Ending stocks are projected above 1.9 billion bushels, with an average farm price near $4.33 per bushel.
Soybean acreage is expected to rebound to 85 million acres. Production near 4.46 billion bushels and larger beginning stocks could lift total supplies more than 7 percent year over year. Even with higher exports—including assumed Chinese purchases—ending stocks near 370 million bushels could keep prices near $10.31 per bushel.
Wheat acreage is projected at 45.1 million acres, among the lowest since records began. While production may fall 4 percent, large carry-in stocks keep total supplies flat. Terrain forecasts an average wheat price of $5.46 per bushel, reflecting improved alignment rather than tight fundamentals.
Sorghum acreage could dip to 6.5 million acres, but large beginning stocks may push total supplies up 16 percent. Without significant Chinese demand, Terrain estimates a $3.69 per bushel average farm price.
Economists at Terrain emphasize that profitability will depend on disciplined marketing, updated break-even calculations, and the ability to capture short-term price rallies in a well-supplied global market.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Large carry-in stocks across major crops could limit price recovery in 2026/27 unless demand strengthens or weather-related supply reductions occur.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist
Congressman Adrian Smith of Nebraska joined us with the latest on efforts to secure year-round E15 sales.
January 23, 2026 01:12 PM
·
Rural population growth and stabilizing economic indicators point to post-pandemic recovery, but uneven income, shifting industries, and regional divides remain key challenges for rural communities.
January 23, 2026 08:00 AM
·
Brian Earnest, an animal protein economist with CoBank, shares insights into current demand trends and the challenges facing broiler production.
January 22, 2026 06:34 PM
·
Decoupled base acres may amplify income inequality and distort planting decisions as farm program payments increase.
January 22, 2026 12:56 PM
·
From tariff talks in Europe to SCOTUS uncertainty and rising farm losses, analysts say policy and global supply will shape grain markets in the year ahead.
January 22, 2026 12:40 PM
·
Large Brazilian crops heighten downside price risk if the weather allows production to reach projected levels.
January 22, 2026 12:38 PM
·
Ethanol and corn groups are not hiding their disappointment over new reports that the bill to allow year-round E15 sales failed as Congress forges ahead on government funding, with another shutdown looming.
January 22, 2026 11:24 AM
·
While row crops are expected to see softer impacts, analysts say severe weather of this magnitude will not be as kind to cattle producers.
January 22, 2026 11:05 AM
·
Oil-led rallies can move soybean prices quickly, but sustained gains will require continued strength in soybean oil and broader biofuel demand signals.
January 22, 2026 10:39 AM
·
