WASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD NEWS) — New data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) show spring planting is off to a strong start, even as economic uncertainty continues to shape farmer decision-making across the country.
According to the latest USDA’s Crop Progress Report, for the week of April 13, five percent of the U.S. corn crop has been planted across the top 18 growing states—slightly ahead of the five-year average of 4 percent. Soybean planting is moving even faster, with 6 percent of the crop now in the ground, well ahead of the 2 percent average.
Winter wheat development is also progressing, with 11 percent of the crop now headed. However, condition ratings remain mixed, with 34% rated good to excellent, while 32% falls into the poor to very poor category.
As planting season ramps up, economists say some growers are reconsidering their crop mix. Analysts at Terrain report a shift toward soybeans and away from corn, driven largely by rising input costs and changing price signals.
Soybean prices climbed nearly 12 percent in the first quarter on strong biofuel demand, while corn prices rose about 4 percent over the same period. At the same time, higher fertilizer and energy costs are making corn—a more input-intensive crop—less attractive for some producers.
Jason Vander Kooy of Save Family Farming says rising costs are creating difficult decisions for growers.
“When these input prices increase — now we’re seeing 25 percent on fuel and fertilizer in the last couple of weeks — the math doesn’t work,” Vander Kooy said. “How do we recoup those costs? Do we just go ahead and farm at a loss? Do we not plant the crop? There are some tough decisions coming up.”
Vander Kooy adds that farmers in Washington state face especially steep challenges due to higher regional costs.
“As a dairy farmer, the milk prices we receive are pretty much the same across the country, within probably a dollar,” Vander Kooy continued. “Yet, we farmed in probably the highest cost area in the nation. So, we’re at a severe disadvantage when it comes to fertilizer, energy, land, and labor. We’re at the top of the country in all those categories, so it puts us at a great disadvantage when we’re trying to survive against states like Texas, South Dakota, and others that have a great cost advantage over us.”
Meanwhile, global supply concerns are adding another layer of uncertainty. Ongoing disruptions tied to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz are tightening fertilizer availability and pushing markets into what analysts call unfamiliar territory. StoneX economist Josh Linville says the situation is unprecedented.
“It just continues to make a bad situation worse for the global nitrogen markets,” Linville said. “Every day that the strait remains closed has a massive impact on supplies. Every day the Strait of Hormuz is closed down, it has a massive impact on the phosphate markets, so it’s unfortunate. I mean, if you had told me the day before the attack happened, ‘this is what’s going to happen. You’re going to see the Strait of Hormuz shut down, even for a short term.’ I probably would have sat there and said, ‘yeah, no, that’s something we’ve always talked about. It ain’t going to happen.’ And then it did shut down. If you had told me it was going to last six-plus weeks, I would have always said there’s no way. It’s too important. Here we are. Man, we’re all making educated guesses. We have never, ever seen anything anywhere close to this magnitude of an issue with global fertilizer supplies.”
While many farmers have secured fertilizer for spring planting, Linville warns that the bigger concern lies ahead.
“So, there are layers to this, and this is where a lot of this confusion starts to come in,” he explained. “When we look at our overall, let’s just say nitrogen, most of the UAN and anhydrous that we need, we produce. We import very little of it, so we’re in good shape on those two. Urea: We import quite a bit, but our imports through March and our forecast for April show we’re in good shape. Not great. I’d feel better if that stuff were actually sitting here. But we’re in good shape. The big fear is that, like this week, we’ve got an India tender going on. They’re looking for 2.5 million tons. If their price is high enough, these vessels en route to the U.S. could easily be turned around and headed back to India if they’re higher-paying. And that’s what my biggest concern is, and that’s why I keep saying we’re in good shape, not great shape.”
Even fertilizer that has reached the U.S. may face additional logistical hurdles, including transportation bottlenecks across river, rail, and trucking systems.
Globally, countries are taking steps to secure supply. In Australia, officials have launched a government-industry task force to protect access to urea, with roughly 60% of the nation’s supply typically passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
While reserves remain stable for now, analysts warn that ongoing disruptions could eventually ripple through to consumers as higher food prices.
Stewardship is a term often used in agriculture, but in the dairy industry, it is more than just resource management—it is a business strategy aimed at improving efficiency and profitability. Alan Bjerga with the National Milk Producers Federation (NMPF) joined us on Tuesday’s Market Day Report for a closer look.
In his interview with RFD NEWS, Bjerga explains how stewardship and profitability are often discussed separately, but in reality, they are closely connected for dairy producers. He outlines how practices that improve resource efficiency can also boost the bottom line.
Bjerga also discusses how stewardship strengthens export competitiveness and what sets dairy’s sustainability efforts apart, including key strategies used across the industry.
Looking ahead, Bjerga shares how the dairy sector can continue advancing stewardship while navigating today’s economic challenges.
Corey Rosenbusch with The Fertilizer Institute joined us to discuss supply chain disruptions and what farmers should watch as global tensions impact fertilizer markets.
