NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — When calf prices are high, it is easy to look at bred heifer prices and assume you can raise replacements cheaper—but the math is trickier than it looks.
University of Kentucky Extension livestock economist Kenny Burdine points to three big guardrails:
- Opportunity cost—the largest cost of a homegrown heifer is the cash you don’t take by selling her at weaning (and high interest rates make that foregone income even more expensive).
- Attrition and selection risk—not every heifer you develop will breed or meet your standards; the “misses” get sold as feeders, and their losses get rolled into the cost of the ones that do make your herd.
- Timing value—a bred heifer purchased this fall likely weans a calf in 2026, while a weaned heifer you retain won’t produce until 2027; if 2026 is a strong calf year, that earlier calf value is already “priced into” today’s bred heifer.
Practically, compare apples to apples: start with her market value at weaning as your first cost, add realistic development expenses (feed, grazing, breeding, health, labor, facilities), include conception rates and cull losses, and apply a sensible interest or discount rate. Then run a timing scenario for 2026 vs. 2027 calf values to see which path best fits your cash flow, genetics goals, forage base, and labor.
Farm-Level Takeaway: You cannot out-cheap the market if you ignore opportunity cost, culls, and timing—price the heifer you keep as if you bought her, and let realistic breeding and calf-year assumptions pick the winner.
Related Stories
Wyoming cowboy and Dusty Vaquero Days founder J.B. Zielke joins us to preview his upcoming event in Gillette and to highlight the festival’s celebration of cowboy culture through music and community events.
DOJ and USDA investigate beef industry concentration, with Big Four packers under scrutiny and a major settlement announcement expected later this week.
Nebraska cattle rancher Joe Van Newkirk joins us to discuss wildfire recovery in Nebraska’s Sandhills athe challenges ranchers face restoring basic infrastructure after the fire.
The spending bill keeps animal health and traceability funding in place while trimming several other USDA accounts.
Spring Fieldwork Advances As Weather Stays Uneven
March brought better prices for several commodities, but rising fuel and feed costs kept margins under pressure.
