WASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD-TV) — A fast-moving series of trade signals from the White House and key partners is resetting the near-term outlook for U.S. agriculture.
RFD-TV Markets Expert Tony St. James and Stone-X Economist Arlan Suderman discuss all the new information on Monday’s Market Day Report to help us digest it all. In their conversation, they discussed the markets’ reaction to the cascade of headlines over the weekend, including Sunday, when U.S. Stock Futures rose after news broke that the U.S. and China had agreed on a framework for a trade deal, as well as future market action as these talks continue.
They also discussed whether the forthcoming investigation into Phase One of the agreement was out of the blue or a long time coming, whether it is crucial to hold China to that agreement, or if we can address what was in Phase One in a new trade agreement. Likewise, how important it is for China to uphold Phase One, the likelihood of it following through on current trade talks -- noting that China’s economy is a significant factor in this discussion compared to its power position five years ago. Lastly, they discussed the impact on agriculture and markets, as well as what they have heard from industry stakeholders.
U.S.-China Trade Agreement in the Works
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says he is hopeful talks this Thursday with President Trump and Xi Jinping will bring good news for America’s farmers and ranchers.
Bessent told the Sunday news programs that China has committed to buying more U.S. soybeans after months of back-and-forth over trade, leaving American farmers stuck in the middle. He does not believe China will roll out export controls on rare earth minerals, saying the threat of 100 percent tariffs may have influenced that decision.
When asked about American farmers, Bessent said he believes the final deal will make them feel very good about what is ahead. His comments came on the heels of Friday’s announcement that the U.S. has put additional pressure on China.
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer announced his office will look into the Phase One agreement signed during the first Trump term. Greer says China has not held up its end of the deal and notes the investigation underscores its commitment to hold China accountable.
President Trump said he expects a “very fair” meeting with China’s President Xi on Thursday in South Korea, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent adding that Beijing will resume “substantial” U.S. soybean purchases for several years and delay its new rare-earth export licensing regime by one year.
Chinese officials echoed a conciliatory tone, saying a consensus was reached on tariffs, export controls, port fees, trade expansion, and fentanyl enforcement—positioning agriculture for a potential demand bump if farm commitments are inked alongside a separate TikTok ownership deal.
For row crops, a China buying restart would tighten Gulf elevation capacity and widen PNW programs, supporting nearby soybean basis and potentially soymeal spreads. Expanded Southeast Asian access favors U.S. corn, DDGS, soymeal, and poultry/pork into Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, and Cambodia. On livestock, Canada tariffs inject uncertainty into red-meat and dairy supply chains, even as broader Asia openings could add beef and variety meat demand over time.
More Trade In-Roads and Rising Tensions in the Mix
Trump also said the U.S. is moving toward a trade deal with Brazil and is “pretty close” on a South Korea agreement. At the same time, Washington unveiled reciprocal frameworks with Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia, and Malaysia.
The Southeast Asia packages keep baseline tariffs (roughly 19–20 percent) but carve out product lanes that could qualify for zero-percent reciprocal rates, with Malaysia pledging better access to rare earths and fewer non-tariff barriers. Cambodia’s accord is the most liberal, dropping tariffs on 100 percent of U.S. industrial, food, and agricultural exports—opening immediate room for U.S. grains, oilseeds, meat, and dairy.
Tensions rose elsewhere: Trump announced an immediate 10 percent tariff increase on Canada, sharply escalating a dispute with a critical ag partner. Any prolonged tariff friction risks friction for cross-border beef, pork, dairy, canola, wheat, and specialty crops, and could complicate feeder cattle flows if broader measures spill beyond goods. By contrast, the mooted Brazil track—if it includes tariff relief—could influence trade flows for beef, ethanol, and soy products, depending on the final carve-outs.
President Trump halted all talks with Canada last week and then, on Saturday, announced a 10-percent tariff increase in response to Ontario’s decision to air a controversial political ad during the World Series game. That sparked fresh concerns for Canada’s struggling lumber industry.
“This additional tariff means that Canadian wood has a higher tariff rate going to the United States than Russia does,” said David Eby, Premier of British Columbia. “Let that sink in. There’s a higher tariff on Canadian wood going to the United States than Russia — an international pariah that has launched a war of aggression on Ukraine. It doesn’t make any sense.”
President Trump has said more lumber tariffs could come in the new year. According to former Canadian NAFTA negotiator John Weekes, his country should not hold onto hope that tariffs will disappear when the USMCA is renegotiated next year.
“We’re not even sure that the United States really wants NAFTA to continue. We have to be prepared and look at how to do things with other partners. The United States accounts for about 13 percent of world trade. So, there’s another 87 percent. It makes a lot of sense to have better partnerships.”
The Supreme Court will hear Trump’s tariffs case on November 5. That is one week from Wednesday. Canadian lawmakers say the ruling could determine their economic outlook.
