Trump Eyes New Tariffs on Mexico and Canada, Citing Water Treaty and Fertilizer Concerns

Tariff relief and new trade agreements may temper food costs by reducing import costs.

NASHVILLE, TENN. (RFD-TV) — We begin this morning with new details on President Donald Trump’s trade policy. Both Canada and Mexico are now in the crosshairs again this week.

In a social media post, President Trump calls on Mexico to release water he says is required under the 1944 Water Treaty, saying Mexico’s failure is harming farmers and ranchers in Texas. If Mexico does not comply by the end of the year, Trump says it will be subject to a 5 percent tariff.

On the Canadian side, Trump says steep tariffs could hit fertilizer supplies coming from our northern neighbor. More than half of Canada‘s potash supply goes to the U.S. Trump says he wants more fertilizer production here in the United States, but no timeline was given for that proposal.

U.S. food costs could ease as new tariff exceptions and trade agreements expand access to key imported goods.

According to Dr. Luis Ribera, Professor and Director of the Center for North American Studies, the Trump administration’s recent actions target high-dependency products such as bananas, tea, coffee, cocoa, fruit juice, spices, tomatoes, and select fertilizers — many of which rely heavily on foreign supply.

Imports account for over 90 percent of U.S. consumption of bananas, tea, coffee, and cocoa, and more than 60 percent of imports of spices, tomatoes, and fruit juice. Canada leads in imports of fertilizers and cocoa products; Brazil dominates fruit juice and coffee; and Mexico supplies 85 percent of tomatoes.

The Trump Administration also announced new framework agreements with Ecuador, Guatemala, El Salvador, and Argentina, removing reciprocal tariffs on most exports to the United States. Together, those nations shipped $7.45 billion in agricultural goods to U.S. buyers last year.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Tariff relief and new trade agreements may temper food costs by reducing import costs.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Specialist
Related Stories
Record milk output looks strong today, but shrinking replacement numbers mean future supply adjustments could be faster and more volatile.
Brent Graves of StockShowAuctions.com takes us to Grayson County to see the damage from a historic winter ice storm and what it will take to rebuild.
Often overlooked, cotton wholesalers act as stabilizers during market stress, translating fragmented retail demand into workable production programs for mills and manufacturers.
Strong blending demand continues to support ethanol use even as production and exports fluctuate.
Early indications suggest the U.S. cattle industry may be nearing the end of its liquidation phase. Oklahoma State University livestock economist Dr. Derrell Peel says the industry could be at or near the cyclical low.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Big oils-and-fats volumes can support crush demand, but fuel markets can quickly tighten supplies.
Global food prices rose slightly in the latest FAO Food Price Index as vegetable oils, cereals, and meat increased, offsetting declines in dairy and sugar.
Mexican livestock officials are emphasizing surveillance and inspection systems to preserve access to the U.S. cattle export market. Texas’ Bovina Feeders explains the rising stakes as the border stays closed.
University of Arkansas’ Allen Szalanski discusses a news study on rice stink bugs, what it could mean for farmers, and pest management strategies for the future.
Nutrition policy shifts may influence retail demand across agriculture.
Weak crop margins and tariff uncertainty are delaying machinery purchases and signaling slower capital investment across U.S. agriculture.