Turkey Talk: AFBF Economist Provides Industry Outlook Ahead of Increased Thanksgiving Demand

AFBF Economist Bearnt Nelson joins us with insights into current turkey flock sizes, HPAI concerns, and production impacts on holiday demand.

DES MOINES, Iowa (RFD-TV) — With Thanksgiving just weeks away, many shoppers are beginning to add turkey to their grocery lists. But after a relatively quiet summer, High-Path Avian Influenza (HPAI) and another poultry disease are once again being detected in turkey flocks across the Upper Midwest, raising questions about potential impacts on supply and prices during the holiday season.

Bearnt Nelson, an economist with the American Farm Bureau Federation, joined us on Thursday’s Market Day Report to share the latest outlook.

In his interview with RFD-TV News, Nelson discussed the recent uptick in HPAI cases, following several months of slowdown, and how the resurgence of the virus could impact turkey production. He also reviewed the USDA’s latest “Turkeys Raised” report, which offers insights into current flock sizes and what the numbers mean for upcoming holiday demand.

Looking ahead to Thanksgiving, Nelson shared what consumers can expect at the checkout counter, including potential price trends and availability of holiday birds as farmers and processors work to keep the supply chain steady amid ongoing disease concerns.

Related Stories
manage risk as milk price volatility increases.
AFBF Economist Danny Munch breaks down a new Farm Bureau analysis showing that producers now earn less than 6 cents of every food dollar, as farm input costs continue to squeeze margins.
Recent USDA reports show a steady feedlot supply despite growing consumer demand for beef, ahead of typical seasonal summer trends.
Bigger flocks are rebuilding egg and poultry supply.
Tight supplies are driving stronger early-year cattle prices.
The Mengel Dairy Farms case is a sobering reminder that “having insurance” is not the same as “having protection.”

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Estate tax relief reduces pressure, but succession planning remains the critical challenge for farm families.
Midwest corn and soy producers are monitoring for disease and lower yields due to the ongoing drought over the last 30 days.
Farm work is hard work, and as the harvest season brings heavier workloads, experts are urging producers to pay closer attention to joint pain and ways to prevent it.
On this week’s episode of FarmHER + RanchHER, host Kirbe Schnoor travels to Wilson’s ranch to see how she blends tradition and technology to raise elite Red Angus cattle.
Fewer placements and historically low marketings point to tighter cattle supplies ahead, with Nebraska and Kansas gaining ground as Texas feedlots face supply pressure and the threat of New World Screwworm.
Industry-wide participation in SHIP enhances biosecurity and fosters global trust in U.S. pork, says swine health expert, Dr. Christine Mainquist-Whigham.
Agriculture Shows
Special 3-part series tells the story of the Claas family’s legacy, which changed agriculture forever.
From soil to harvest. Top Crop is an all-new series about four of the best farmers in the world—Dan Luepkes, of Oregan, Illinois; Cory Atley, of Cedarville, Ohio; Shelby Fite, of Jackson Center, Ohio; Russell Hedrick, of Hickory, North Carolina—reveals what it takes for them to make a profitable crop. It all starts with good soil, patience, and a strong planter setup.
Champions of Rural America is a half-hour dive into the legislative priorities for Rural America. Join us as we interview members of the Congressional Western Caucus to learn about efforts in Washington to preserve agriculture and tackles the most important topics in the ag industry on Champions of Rural America!
Featuring members of Congress, federal and state officials, ag and food leaders, farmers, and roundtable panelists for debates and discussions.