Turkey Talk: AFBF Economist Provides Industry Outlook Ahead of Increased Thanksgiving Demand

AFBF Economist Bearnt Nelson joins us with insights into current turkey flock sizes, HPAI concerns, and production impacts on holiday demand.

DES MOINES, Iowa (RFD-TV) — With Thanksgiving just weeks away, many shoppers are beginning to add turkey to their grocery lists. But after a relatively quiet summer, High-Path Avian Influenza (HPAI) and another poultry disease are once again being detected in turkey flocks across the Upper Midwest, raising questions about potential impacts on supply and prices during the holiday season.

Bearnt Nelson, an economist with the American Farm Bureau Federation, joined us on Thursday’s Market Day Report to share the latest outlook.

In his interview with RFD-TV News, Nelson discussed the recent uptick in HPAI cases, following several months of slowdown, and how the resurgence of the virus could impact turkey production. He also reviewed the USDA’s latest “Turkeys Raised” report, which offers insights into current flock sizes and what the numbers mean for upcoming holiday demand.

Looking ahead to Thanksgiving, Nelson shared what consumers can expect at the checkout counter, including potential price trends and availability of holiday birds as farmers and processors work to keep the supply chain steady amid ongoing disease concerns.

Related Stories
Global food prices rose slightly in the latest FAO Food Price Index as vegetable oils, cereals, and meat increased, offsetting declines in dairy and sugar.
Mexican livestock officials are emphasizing surveillance and inspection systems to preserve access to the U.S. cattle export market. Texas’ Bovina Feeders explains the rising stakes as the border stays closed.
Nutrition policy shifts may influence retail demand across agriculture.
Texas lawmakers secure funding for sterile fly production as officials work to stop the New World screwworm from spreading into the U.S. cattle herd.
Pennsylvania Secretary of Agriculture Russell Redding discusses the recent surge in bird flu cases, the state’s expanded biosecurity response and efforts to support poultry producers.
The closure of Lubbock Feeders highlights mounting pressure on the U.S. cattle supply, according to the Texas Cattle Feeders Association, as border restrictions and costs strain feedyards.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

A man accused of orchestrating a nationwide cattle investment fraud scheme has been arrested in California after being on the FBI’s wanted list.
ASFMRA’s Craig Thompson shares insights for American farmers who are navigating farmland markets amid agricultural uncertainty.
Dr. Jeffrey Gold provides insights on supporting aging populations in rural communities on this week’s Rural Health Matters segment.
OHFB President Bill Patterson shares an update from Washington on the group’s policy priorities and the issues shaping agriculture ahead of the 2026 planting season.
Ben Kurtzman with American Farmland Trust discusses the growing pressure on farmland and ranchland and the steps being taken to help conserve farms and ranches across the country ,as unrest in the Middle East adds more obstacles for producers.
NRECA CEO Jim Matheson warns that rising electricity demand from AI and data centers could strain the grid and affect rural electric cooperatives if U.S. power infrastructure cannot keep up.
Agriculture Shows
The goal of “Where the Food Comes From” is as simple as its name implies — host Chip Carter takes you along on the journey of where our food comes from — and we don’t just mean to the supermarket (though that’s part of the big picture!). But beyond where it comes from, how it gets there, and all the links in the chain that make that happen.
Join markets specialist Scott Shellady, better known as the Cow Guy, as he covers the market-close, breaking down headlines that drive the commodities and equities markets with commentary from respected industry heavyweights.
Crop yield champions David Hula from Virginia and Randy Dowdy from Georgia are back for another season with the aim of schooling more growers across the country in their winning ways.
“Texas Agriculture Matters” is a fun, informative look at the role of agriculture in our daily lives. The show utilizes the trademark wit and wisdom of its host Commissioner Sid Miller — an 8th-generation farmer-rancher and 12-time World Champion rodeo cowboy — to explore a new Texas ag-related topic each week.