Turkey Talk: AFBF Economist Provides Industry Outlook Ahead of Increased Thanksgiving Demand

AFBF Economist Bearnt Nelson joins us with insights into current turkey flock sizes, HPAI concerns, and production impacts on holiday demand.

DES MOINES, Iowa (RFD-TV) — With Thanksgiving just weeks away, many shoppers are beginning to add turkey to their grocery lists. But after a relatively quiet summer, High-Path Avian Influenza (HPAI) and another poultry disease are once again being detected in turkey flocks across the Upper Midwest, raising questions about potential impacts on supply and prices during the holiday season.

Bearnt Nelson, an economist with the American Farm Bureau Federation, joined us on Thursday’s Market Day Report to share the latest outlook.

In his interview with RFD-TV News, Nelson discussed the recent uptick in HPAI cases, following several months of slowdown, and how the resurgence of the virus could impact turkey production. He also reviewed the USDA’s latest “Turkeys Raised” report, which offers insights into current flock sizes and what the numbers mean for upcoming holiday demand.

Looking ahead to Thanksgiving, Nelson shared what consumers can expect at the checkout counter, including potential price trends and availability of holiday birds as farmers and processors work to keep the supply chain steady amid ongoing disease concerns.

Related Stories
UT Extension also offers tips to help consumers stretch their grocery budgets, including meal planning, sticking to a shopping list, and choosing store or generic brands.
Early indications suggest the U.S. cattle industry may be nearing the end of its liquidation phase. Oklahoma State University livestock economist Dr. Derrell Peel says the industry could be at or near the cyclical low.
Beef x Dairy cattle with strong genetics and documentation are earning prices comparable to native feeders.
Mike Steenhoek of the Soy Transportation Coalition shares how extreme winter weather is affecting the ag transportation network and what producers should keep in mind as conditions slowly improve.
Mixed product pricing and rising milk supplies suggest margin management will remain critical as 2026 unfolds.
Marilyn Schlake with the UNL Department of Agricultural Economics joined us for a closer look at the evolving role of livestock sale barns.
The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association and Public Lands Council published a joint press release regarding the advancement of legislation to delist the Mexican Gray Wolf from the Endangered Species Act.
Americans for Prosperity Arkansas Director Ryan Norris talks energy infrastructure, regulatory reform, and the role of critical minerals in supporting rural America.
Nearly everyone in the South Texas ag community appears extremely worried about the potential of a New World screwworm epidemic, according to a local veterinarian. RFD NEWS Correspondent Frank McCaffrey reports.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

University of Nebraska President Dr. Jeffrey Gold joined RFD-TV to provide the latest insights on diabetes and rural health.
Our friend Jake Charleston at Specialty Risk Insurance joins us for an industry update.
Mary-Thomas Hart, with the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association, discusses the latest WOTUS developments and their implications for agriculture.
Wed, 12/17/25 – 7:30 PM ET | 6:30 PM CT | 5:30 PM MT | 4:30 PM PT
A massive rail merger could significantly impact North American agriculture and trade flows.
Urea and phosphate see the biggest price relief from tariff exemptions, but nitrogen markets remain tight, and spring demand will still dictate pricing momentum.
Agriculture Shows
Special 3-part series tells the story of the Claas family’s legacy, which changed agriculture forever.
From soil to harvest. Top Crop is an all-new series about four of the best farmers in the world—Dan Luepkes, of Oregan, Illinois; Cory Atley, of Cedarville, Ohio; Shelby Fite, of Jackson Center, Ohio; Russell Hedrick, of Hickory, North Carolina—reveals what it takes for them to make a profitable crop. It all starts with good soil, patience, and a strong planter setup.
Champions of Rural America is a half-hour dive into the legislative priorities for Rural America. Join us as we interview members of the Congressional Western Caucus to learn about efforts in Washington to preserve agriculture and tackles the most important topics in the ag industry on Champions of Rural America!
Featuring members of Congress, federal and state officials, ag and food leaders, farmers, and roundtable panelists for debates and discussions.