Turkey Talk: AFBF Economist Provides Industry Outlook Ahead of Increased Thanksgiving Demand

AFBF Economist Bearnt Nelson joins us with insights into current turkey flock sizes, HPAI concerns, and production impacts on holiday demand.

DES MOINES, Iowa (RFD-TV) — With Thanksgiving just weeks away, many shoppers are beginning to add turkey to their grocery lists. But after a relatively quiet summer, High-Path Avian Influenza (HPAI) and another poultry disease are once again being detected in turkey flocks across the Upper Midwest, raising questions about potential impacts on supply and prices during the holiday season.

Bearnt Nelson, an economist with the American Farm Bureau Federation, joined us on Thursday’s Market Day Report to share the latest outlook.

In his interview with RFD-TV News, Nelson discussed the recent uptick in HPAI cases, following several months of slowdown, and how the resurgence of the virus could impact turkey production. He also reviewed the USDA’s latest “Turkeys Raised” report, which offers insights into current flock sizes and what the numbers mean for upcoming holiday demand.

Looking ahead to Thanksgiving, Nelson shared what consumers can expect at the checkout counter, including potential price trends and availability of holiday birds as farmers and processors work to keep the supply chain steady amid ongoing disease concerns.

Related Stories
The inverted Choice-Select spread is not a strong warning sign in today’s tighter, higher-quality beef market, according to new analysis from Terrain.
National Pork Producers Council President Rob Brenneman joins us to discuss Prop 12 provisions in the House’s Farm Bill as it heads to the Senate for debate.
Officials say no additional spread has been detected as containment and monitoring efforts move forward.
U.S. Cattlemen’s Association President Justin Tupper joins us to discuss the DOJ packer investigation, industry competition, and the outlook for cattle producers.
Practical changes to retailer stocking standards promote more options all while reducing fraud and abuse in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program
The New World Screwworm case was detected roughly 119 miles from the U.S.-Mexico border — at nearly the same latitude as Zapata, Texas.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Alissa White with American Farmland Trust joined us to provide insight into climate resilience efforts and strategies to help farmers manage weather-related risks.
University of Nebraska President Dr. Jeffrey Gold joined us to share practical health and safety guidance for managing respiratory and skin health during the winter season.
Roger McEowen with the Washburn University School of Law joined us to provide legal analysis on key cases shaping the agricultural landscape heading into the year ahead.
NASDA declared 2026 the International Year of the Woman Farmer. President Amanda Beal joins us to share NASDA’s new hub, which highlights the impact of women in agriculture worldwide.
Matt Brockman, communications director for the Fort Worth Stock Show & Rodeo, joined us to share a preview of the upcoming event.
RFD News correspondent Frank McCaffrey reports from Texas on the ongoing water dispute and its implications for U.S. farmers.
Agriculture Shows
Hosted by Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady and RFD News Markets Specialist Tony St. James, Commodity Talk delivers expert insight into the day’s ag commodity markets just before the CME opens. Only on RFD-TV and Rural Radio SiriusXM Channel 147.
A look at the news, weather and commodities headlines that drove agriculture markets in the past week.
Everything profits from prairie. Soil, air, water — and all kinds of life! Learn how you can improve your land with prairie restoration, cover crops and prairie strips, while growing your bottom line.
Special 3-part series tells the story of the Claas family’s legacy, which changed agriculture forever.