NASHVILLE, TENN. (RFD-TV) — Tight fed cattle supplies are already straining packer margins, and the coming shutdown of Tyson’s Lexington, Nebraska, beef plant will further shift how slaughter capacity is used nationwide. Dr. Charley Martinez, Assistant Professor at the University of Tennessee Institute of Agriculture, analyzed the expected impact using updated 2025 slaughter and utilization data.
The Lexington facility accounts for roughly 5,000 head per day — about 20 percent of Tyson’s total daily capacity. Removing that volume raises national capacity utilization (CU) closer to historical levels. Martinez’s adjusted model shows 2025 CU improving from 83.1 percent to 87.7 percent, nearer the five-year average of 90.1 percent.
Operationally, November CU fell to 83.5 percent, well below last year and historical norms. The adjustment suggests the industry currently holds more physical capacity than available cattle supplies can support.
Regionally and historically, this marks the largest major-plant closure since Cargill shuttered Plainview in 2013 amid similar tight-supply conditions. Martinez notes that new facilities expected in 2026–27 could reshape CU again, depending on herd rebuilding.
Looking ahead, the key uncertainty is whether today’s adjusted CU represents a short-term imbalance or a longer-run structural shift.
Farm-Level Takeaway: The Lexington shutdown pushes national slaughter capacity utilization nearer long-run averages, underscoring how tight cattle supplies are reshaping packer operations.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Specialist
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