NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — Beef imports are rising to cover U.S. supply gaps created by the smallest cattle herd in decades, while pork demand is being primarily met by domestic production.
South America is reshaping beef trade flows, with Brazil and Uruguay in particular expanding their share of the U.S. market.
Brazilian Beef Exports Expected to Drop Due to Tariffs
Brazil’s beef exports to the U.S. are expected to drop again in September, due to higher tariffs. According to Reuters, volumes could go from about 30 thousand tons a month before the duties to just 7,000 tons this month.
Derrell Peel, a livestock economist at Oklahoma State University, says Brazil has been a major supplier to the U.S. Still, the tariffs are likely to slow exports in the months ahead.
“This has generated some discussion lately,” Peel explained. “Brazil has been the biggest source of beef imports in the U.S. for the first seven months of this year, and is now slightly ahead of Australia. They probably won’t be the biggest in the second half of the year due to the tariffs now in place. So we’ll have to see how those work out over the next couple of years. But you know, Brazil, since they gained access to fresh beef imports into the U.S., has really dominated that other countries’ quota that’s available every calendar year. And so every January, they jump out there because they’re a big supplier. They can fill that quota very quickly. I think this year they filled it within two weeks of January 1.”
And cattle markets are feeling the heat as beef prices struggle to hold. Packers are cautious, and even with tight on-feed numbers, there’s plenty of market-ready cattle.
“That’s one of the things we don’t really want to talk about now, it’s disheartening to see the cutout grind lower has lost significant ground recently,” Peel said. “Cutout went on a tear in late August, and that certainly helped incentivize the packers to push bids and increase production. But we’ve lost all those games and then some over the past two weeks. You’ve got to wonder which primal can stop the bleeding. When you look at each primal individually, you scratch your head and see if this is just going to continue to slowly grind lower. Still, maybe we’ll catch some support — but the lower cut-out certainly hinders the Packers in addition to pushing those bids, making you wonder if they’re going to start slow and slaughter down. Is it going to be a plant that closes down the road? You know, on feed numbers are tight, but there really isn’t a shortage of market-ready cattle today.”
Beef Imports Rise Sharply As Pork Volumes Decline
U.S. beef imports are climbing in 2025 while pork imports continue to ease, according to USDA data through early September. Total beef imports reached 1.82 million metric tons, up 8 percent from 2024, with South America gaining ground.
Canada remains the top supplier at 487,000 MT, but volumes are down 13 percent year-over-year. Australia shipped 386,000 MT, up 21 percent on herd recovery and tariff advantages, while Brazil surged 56 percent to 251,000 MT, displacing Mexico as the third-largest supplier. Imports from Uruguay also grew 35 percent, adding to the South American push.
Pork imports, by contrast, totaled 261,000 MT, down 11 percent from last year. Canada still leads with 169,000 MT, but volumes fell 12 percent. Mexico followed with 24,000 MT, edging slightly higher, while Denmark held third despite a 17 percent decline. Other European and South American suppliers also shipped less pork compared to 2024.
All eyes will be on today’s Cattle on Feed Report, which analysts say could give a clearer picture of where the market goes next. We’ll bring you any major movements tonight on Rural Evening News.
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