LUBBOCK, Texas (RFD NEWS) — Uncertainty is shaping the outlook for U.S. agricultural trade in 2026 as tariffs and shifting trade relationships continue to disrupt long-established export patterns. Luis Ribera, director of the Center for North American Studies, says trade policy volatility has become a defining feature of the farm economy heading into the new year.
USDA projects U.S. agricultural exports to fall to $173 billion in 2026, the lowest level since 2021. That decline reflects both lower volumes and weaker values, driven primarily by reduced soybean and sorghum shipments to China. Ribera notes China has increasingly sourced those commodities from Brazil and Argentina as tariffs have altered relative prices and trade flows.
While U.S. exports to markets such as the European Union, Mexico, Indonesia, and Vietnam have grown, those gains have not fully offset losses tied to China. As a result, overall export momentum remains fragile.
On the import side, U.S. agricultural imports are expected to peak at approximately $219 billion in 2025, then ease in 2026. Lower volumes of horticultural products and vegetable oils are projected, though higher prices for coffee and cocoa continue to lift import values. Ribera says recently announced tariff exemptions on select agricultural goods could help temper consumer food costs, but uncertainty remains elevated.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Trade volatility and shifting export destinations increase marketing risk for producers heading into 2026.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist
In a post to social media, Trump said Venezuela will buy American agriculture products and will use the money from oil sales to make it happen.
January 08, 2026 11:51 AM
·
Federal nutrition policy is signaling a stronger demand for whole foods produced by U.S. farmers and ranchers. Consumer-facing guidance favors animal protein, but institutional demand may change little under existing saturated fat limits.
January 08, 2026 11:42 AM
·
Farmer Bridge payments are being used primarily to reduce debt and protect cash flow, not drive new spending. Curt Blades with the Association of Equipment Manufacturers joined us to provide insight into the ag equipment market and the factors influencing sales.
January 08, 2026 08:00 AM
·
Rail strength is helping stabilize grain movement, but river and export slowdowns continue to limit overall logistics momentum.
January 08, 2026 06:00 AM
·
Retail pricing confirms tight cattle supplies and supports continued leverage for producers, reinforcing the need for disciplined risk management.
January 07, 2026 06:00 PM
·
China continues to buy U.S. soybeans toward its 12 MMT commitment, as analysts cite data gaps, delivery timing questions, and muted market reaction.
January 07, 2026 11:50 AM
·
