LUBBOCK, Texas (RFD NEWS) — Uncertainty is shaping the outlook for U.S. agricultural trade in 2026 as tariffs and shifting trade relationships continue to disrupt long-established export patterns. Luis Ribera, director of the Center for North American Studies, says trade policy volatility has become a defining feature of the farm economy heading into the new year.
USDA projects U.S. agricultural exports to fall to $173 billion in 2026, the lowest level since 2021. That decline reflects both lower volumes and weaker values, driven primarily by reduced soybean and sorghum shipments to China. Ribera notes China has increasingly sourced those commodities from Brazil and Argentina as tariffs have altered relative prices and trade flows.
While U.S. exports to markets such as the European Union, Mexico, Indonesia, and Vietnam have grown, those gains have not fully offset losses tied to China. As a result, overall export momentum remains fragile.
On the import side, U.S. agricultural imports are expected to peak at approximately $219 billion in 2025, then ease in 2026. Lower volumes of horticultural products and vegetable oils are projected, though higher prices for coffee and cocoa continue to lift import values. Ribera says recently announced tariff exemptions on select agricultural goods could help temper consumer food costs, but uncertainty remains elevated.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Trade volatility and shifting export destinations increase marketing risk for producers heading into 2026.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist
China’s buying decisions continue to be a critical factor in shaping cotton prices and export opportunities worldwide.
September 26, 2025 11:55 AM
·
Lower inventories and cautious farrowing plans suggest tighter hog supplies into 2026, keeping producer margins sensitive to demand trends and health risks.
September 26, 2025 11:28 AM
·
Secretary Rollins’ plan targets high costs, labor challenges, and export growth, delivering relief at home while building markets abroad.
September 26, 2025 10:18 AM
·
Transportation challenges are mounting as droughts lower Mississippi River levels and push freight rates higher.
September 25, 2025 04:54 PM
·
Waiting could risk leaving next year’s crop unprotected.
September 25, 2025 01:55 PM
·
Michigan corn farmer and NCGA Vice President-Elect Matt Frostic will lead the task force. He joined us on Thursday to share his insights on the escalating corn crisis.
September 25, 2025 01:46 PM
·
Speaking about his administration’s tariff strategy, Trump acknowledged that producers could face financial strain in the short term but promised stopgap support.
September 25, 2025 01:07 PM
·
U.S. soybean farmers are growing increasingly frustrated by Argentina’s gains in Chinese grain contracts and Trump’s pledge of economic support for the South American ally.
September 25, 2025 11:51 AM
·
The USDA is moving to close the farm trade gap through promotion, missions, and stronger export financing.
September 25, 2025 10:46 AM
·
