USDA Trims Beef Outlook, Raises Pork Production Forecast

Producers may need to prepare for margin pressure in livestock feeding, while dairy farmers could benefit from stronger product demand.

WASHINGTON (RFD-TV) — The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) September WASDE report adjusted 2025 livestock projections, signaling shifts in beef and pork markets while leaving poultry largely steady.

The USDA’s outlook points to slightly weaker cattle and hog prices as supplies remain ample, but dairy and poultry show firmer pricing. Producers may need to prepare for margin pressure in livestock feeding, while dairy farmers could benefit from stronger product demand.

BEEF AND DAIRY CATTLE

For beef, the USDA lowered production slightly as lighter-fed cattle weights offset larger-than-expected slaughter. Exports were reduced due to weaker Asian demand, while imports were raised with strong inflows from Australia. Cattle prices are projected to be lower, with the 2025 steer price forecast trimmed to $176 per hundredweight (cwt).

In dairy, milk production was left essentially unchanged, but the USDA raised its Class III and Class IV milk price forecasts on more pungent cheese and butter demand. The all-milk price for 2025 is now forecast at $22.00/cwt.

PORK

Pork production was increased due to higher-than-anticipated slaughter numbers. Exports were raised modestly, reflecting stronger demand from Mexico and Asia. The 2025 hog price was adjusted downward to $65.50/cwt, pressured by larger supplies.

POULTRY

For broilers, production forecasts held steady, but the USDA lowered exports on weaker international demand. Prices are expected to remain firm at $1.29 per pound for 2025. Turkey production and trade forecasts were unchanged, with prices stable at $1.24 per pound.

Related Stories
Meet Erica Sawatzke, a passionate sixth-generation turkey, corn, and soy FarmHER dedicated to preserving her family’s agricultural legacy at Oakdale Farms in Kensington, Minnesota.
Meet Annaliese Wegner, a Wisconsin dairy FarmHER, mom to twins, and a passionate agriculture advocate.

(Tags: USDA, WASDE, Beef, Pork, Dairy, Poultry, Livestock Markets)

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Rich Nelson, a commodity broker for Allendale Inc., joins us to break down what the U.S.-China trade agreement means for the ag economy.
With core input inflation still hovering high, growers and retailers should plan pricing and promotions with tighter margins in mind — target early sales, leverage bundle deals, and secure logistics ahead of peak Halloween demand.
The U.S.-China summit raises hopes for stronger exports and reduced barriers, but U.S. ag players should remain strategically cautious until concrete volumes and certifications materialize.
Rollins will also tour a small soybean operation in Iowa before her appearance at Lucas Oil Stadium.
Global agriculture is stabilizing after years of price swings, with flat to modestly rising returns expected as productivity offsets slower demand growth.
Tara Vander Dussen, fifth-generation dairy farmer, environmental scientist, and co-host of Discover Ag, joined RFD-TV to talk about her work in agriculture and her passion for sharing the story of dairy.
Agriculture Shows
Special 3-part series tells the story of the Claas family’s legacy, which changed agriculture forever.
From soil to harvest. Top Crop is an all-new series about four of the best farmers in the world—Dan Luepkes, of Oregan, Illinois; Cory Atley, of Cedarville, Ohio; Shelby Fite, of Jackson Center, Ohio; Russell Hedrick, of Hickory, North Carolina—reveals what it takes for them to make a profitable crop. It all starts with good soil, patience, and a strong planter setup.
Champions of Rural America is a half-hour dive into the legislative priorities for Rural America. Join us as we interview members of the Congressional Western Caucus to learn about efforts in Washington to preserve agriculture and tackles the most important topics in the ag industry on Champions of Rural America!
Featuring members of Congress, federal and state officials, ag and food leaders, farmers, and roundtable panelists for debates and discussions.