WASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD NEWS) — Wheat markets rallied after the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) cut U.S. winter wheat production and tightened the new-crop balance sheet. NASS forecasts winter wheat production at 1.05 billion bushels, down 25 percent from 2025, with the national yield dropping to 47.6 bushels per acre.
The sharpest cut came in hard red winter wheat. USDA pegs HRW production at 515 million bushels, down 36 percent from last year.
Soft red winter is forecast at 301 million bushels, down 15 percent, while white winter is down 5 percent.
WASDE projects all-wheat production at 1.561 billion bushels, down 424 million from last year. Ending stocks are forecast at 762 million bushels, down 18 percent.
USDA also lowered its export estimate to 775 million bushels because tighter supplies and higher prices are expected to limit U.S. competitiveness.
The season-average farm price is projected at $6.50 per bushel, up $1.50 from last year.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Lower wheat production, smaller stocks, and higher projected prices explain the rally and put more attention on Plains crop conditions.
Tony St. James, RFD News Markets Specialist
The USDA’s latest Hogs and Pigs Report caught some analysts off guard. Inventories came in lower than expected, signaling tighter supplies ahead, even as producers return to profitability this year.
October 20, 2025 04:06 PM
·
The government shutdown has touched nearly every sector of the ag industry since it began, and now impacts are spilling over into dairy.
October 20, 2025 12:46 PM
·
Southern farms are deepening online engagement for cost savings and market access, while higher-cost precision technologies face renewed scrutiny amid tight budgets.
October 20, 2025 11:22 AM
·
Global trade teams and summit discussions highlight expanding opportunities for U.S. corn and ethanol exports as nations explore renewable fuel options and reduced-carbon energy pathways.
October 20, 2025 11:17 AM
·
Slightly higher output amid softer gasoline pull points to steady corn grind — watch regional stocks and export pace for basis clues.
October 17, 2025 04:59 PM
·
Expect firm calf and fed-cattle prices — pair selective heifer retention with prudent hedging and liquidity to bridge rebuilding costs.
October 17, 2025 04:54 PM
·
