NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — A new report from the Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute shows that Thanksgiving dinner is one of the few bright spots for food budgets this fall.
While grocery prices overall remain up 2.7 percent from a year ago, a traditional 10-person Thanksgiving meal is 2-3 percent cheaper than last year, thanks to lower turkey prices, aggressive retailer promotions, and national-brand competition with private-label products.
Wells Fargo’s analysis — led by Dr. Michael Swanson, Robin Wenzel, and Courtney Schmidt — places an all-private-label dinner at $80, while an all-national-brand basket reaches $95.
Turkey remains the most significant contributor to savings, with national-brand whole-bird prices down 3.7 percent from last year after producers and retailers aligned inventories early.
Frozen vegetables also delivered significant year-over-year declines for national brands, down 15 percent, even as private-label vegetables held steady. Other key meal components showed mixed movement: private-label dinner rolls fell 22 percent, gravy mix, stuffing, and fresh cranberries dropped 3–4 percent, and national-brand pumpkin pies eased 3 percent. Prepared mashed potatoes — a fast-growing convenience item — slipped 1.5 percent on strong supplies and brand-to-brand competition.
Most remaining items were flat or slightly higher. Prepackaged salad mix rose 0.3 percent, and whipping cream gained 3 percent, reflecting broader dairy trends. Beverage categories moved in different directions: beer is up 3 percent, wine is flat, and soft drinks split — 12-oz cans down 3 percent, but 2-liter bottles up 7 percent, though still roughly 31 percent cheaper per ounce than cans.
Overall, Wells Fargo says strategic brand choices give consumers unusual flexibility this year, keeping the cost of a full holiday meal at one of the most affordable points since inflation began accelerating.
Corey Rosenbusch with The Fertilizer Institute joined us to discuss supply chain disruptions and what farmers should watch as global tensions impact fertilizer markets.
