Farm Bureau’s Annual Survey Finds Thanksgiving Meal Costs Falling as Turkey Prices Drop

Lower turkey and wheat prices helped ease Thanksgiving costs, but underlying farm-sector pressures remain significant.

WASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD-TV) — The cost of preparing a classic Thanksgiving dinner is moving lower for the third straight year, giving families some relief as grocery bills remain a significant concern. The American Farm Bureau Federation’s annual survey shows the traditional meal for ten people averaging $55.18, down 5 percent from last year and well below the 2022 peak.

The most significant driver is turkey, where a 16-pound frozen bird now averages $21.50, more than 16 percent cheaper than last year as retail promotions and rebuilding flocks boost availability. USDA market data also shows that advertised turkey prices fell further during the second week of November.

Other staple items contributed to the lower meal cost. Dinner rolls, stuffing, and several flour-based foods declined as wheat prices eased. Fresh vegetables and sweet potatoes moved higher, however, partly due to hurricane damage in North Carolina — the nation’s top sweet-potato state — and broader supply-chain pressures, including labor shortages and volatile produce markets. Farm Bureau economists note that even small price shifts can yield large percentage moves because these items typically trade at low prices.

Regional data shows the South offering the most affordable Thanksgiving meal at $50.01, followed by the Midwest, Northeast, and West. An expanded menu that includes ham, Russet potatoes, and green beans lifts the overall cost to $77.09, but it remains lower than in 2024. Farm groups say the declining meal cost is welcome, even as farmers themselves face historically low commodity prices, high input costs, and continued financial strain across the countryside.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Lower turkey and wheat prices helped ease Thanksgiving costs, but underlying farm-sector pressures remain significant.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Specialist

AFBF Economist Samantha Ayoub joined RFD-TV’s Market Day Report to break down the numbers, explain what’s behind the price shift, and discuss what consumers — and producers — should know going into the holiday season.

In her interview, Ayoub outlined how the Farm Bureau survey is conducted each year, what foods are included on the menu, and why the benchmark is vital for tracking food affordability. She explained that lower turkey prices and easing supply pressures helped bring overall costs down, though a few items will still see small increases compared to 2023.

Ayoub also emphasized that the survey reflects the reality faced by farmers and ranchers who work year-round to keep grocery store shelves stocked. She noted that, despite lower retail prices this Thanksgiving, producers continue to navigate tight margins, high input costs, and market challenges as they work to meet consumer demand.

Related Stories
These produce staples last longer and are incredibly versatile, whether cooking from scratch, planning meals, or building a more budget-friendly kitchen routine. These are six fruits and vegetables that stay fresh for weeks.
Dis rice isn’t that wild, no, but it is a delicious rice!
A rich, old-fashioned bread pudding made with brandy, raisins, and vanilla—baked until golden and full of warm Southern flavor, just like Justin liked it!
While trying to find the sweetest watermelon is always difficult, experts do have a few recommendations.
“South central Kansas is really behind schedule...”

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

National Pork Board Chief Sustainability Officer Jamie Burr shares a closer look at the Pork Checkoff’s Pork Cares Farm Impact Report, a research program to increase trust in the pork supply chain.
Brooks York with Agrisompo joined us on Monday’s Market Day Report with some guidance on how producers can navigate their crop insurance claims for unsold grain crops.
Ethanol markets remain mixed — weaker production and blend rates are being partially balanced by stronger exports as winter demand patterns take shape.
Tariff relief may soften grocery prices, but it also intensifies competition for U.S. fruit, vegetable, and beef producers as cheaper imports regain market share.
Strong U.S. yields and steady demand leave most major crops well supplied, keeping price pressure in place unless usage strengthens or weather shifts outlooks.
Retail competition and improved supplies are helping offset food inflation, pushing Thanksgiving meal costs modestly lower despite higher prices for beef, eggs, and dairy.