ST. ONGE, S.D. (RFD News) — Beef prices are separating sharply from the rest of the grocery basket in 2026. USDA’s Economic Research Service forecasts beef and veal prices will rise 9.8 percent this year, compared with a 2.5 percent increase for food purchased at grocery stores.
July beef and veal prices were already 9.4 percent above a year earlier. By comparison, pork prices were up just 0.5 percent, while poultry and dairy prices were slightly lower than last July.
ERS expects pork prices to rise only 0.8 percent for the full year and poultry prices about 0.5 percent. Dairy prices are forecast to remain essentially unchanged, while egg prices are projected to fall sharply from 2025 levels.
For cattle producers, the widening retail price gap reflects historically tight beef supplies and strong cattle values, while cheaper competing proteins could encourage some consumers to substitute pork or poultry.
USDA currently projects another 5.1 percent increase in beef prices for 2027, although the forecast range remains unusually wide.
U.S. Cattlemen Raise Concerns Over Foreign Beef Tariff Policy
U.S. Cattlemen’s Association (USCA) President Justin Tupper joined us on Thursday’s Market Day Report to discuss the administration’s efforts to address consumer beef prices, as groups across the agriculture sector urge the administration to rethink its policy to remove tariffs on foreign beef.
In his interview with RFD News, Tupper says the proposal could create challenges for American cattle producers, particularly as ranchers begin marketing their spring calves.
Tupper says the announcement came as a surprise and argues that bringing additional foreign beef into the U.S. market would put American producers in a difficult position.
“We think putting us cattle producers first is not a — it should be America First,” Tupper said. “Buying all that foreign beef and dumping it into our country and making [it] compete with our producers is not America First.”
He also questioned whether bringing additional foreign beef into the market would actually lower beef prices for consumers.
Timing Raises Questions for Ranchers
The proposed import window comes as ranchers begin marketing their spring calves.
Tupper says producers in his area are already dealing with hot and dry conditions, which could send more calves to market.
“We really question whether if you dump all this foreign beef into our market, is it going to lower beef prices? We don’t think it will,” he said.
Tupper also pointed to the value consumers receive from beef compared with other grocery items, saying American producers continue to provide quality beef.
Concerns About Herd Expansion
Tupper says the policy could also affect the long-term stability of the U.S. cattle industry.
He says growing the American cattle herd takes time and requires producers to have confidence that they can remain profitable.
“If you want to strengthen the American herd and you want the herd to grow, and it takes time and we know that the cycles are that way, you’ve got to make sure that you’re going to be profitable,” Tupper said.
He says market signals have given producers reason to consider rebuilding the herd, but bringing in additional foreign beef could affect those signals.
Tupper says profitability could also help bring younger generations back into the cattle industry.
Cattle Groups Unite in Opposition
The U.S. Cattlemen’s Association has joined other cattle organizations in sending a letter to President Trump outlining concerns about the policy.
Tupper says there has been no response to the letter yet, but he is encouraged by the number of groups that signed on.
He says getting cattle organizations to agree on an issue can be difficult, but several groups came together to support American producers.
Mexico Border Reopening
Tupper also addressed the partial reopening of the U.S. border for cattle trade with Mexico after more than a year of closure.
He says normalized trade with Mexico is important to producers along the border.
“I think it’s a good thing. I think we need to have that normalized trade,” Tupper said.
He added that maintaining scrutiny of cattle entering the U.S. is important to ensure herd health.
Tupper says the reopening could be positive as long as the necessary health protections remain in place.
