Boxed Beef Prices Surge Early on Tight Supplies

Tight supplies are driving stronger early-year cattle prices.

Spicy Beef Back Ribs_NCBA_19709441-g.jpeg

Photo by ricka_kinamoto via Adobe Stock

LUBBOCK, TEXAS (RFD NEWS) — Wholesale beef prices are moving higher earlier than normal this year, signaling tighter supplies and strong demand across cattle markets.

The Choice boxed beef cutout moved above $400 per hundredweight, up roughly $50 since the start of the year, according to analysis from Mississippi State University’s Josh Maples. The Select cutout also climbed sharply, reaching levels not seen since mid-2020. The spread between Choice and Select has remained narrow, indicating a limited premium for higher-grade cattle so far in 2026.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Tight supplies are driving stronger early-year cattle prices.
Ton St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist

Beef prices typically build gradually early in the year before peaking ahead of summer demand. This year’s move higher is happening sooner, reflecting tighter cattle supplies and reduced beef production. Buyers may also be stepping in earlier to secure product ahead of expected supply constraints later this spring.

Strength in Rib and Loin primals have driven much of the increase, with both cuts trending higher since mid-January and supporting the broader cutout. Firm boxed beef values continue to provide underlying support to fed cattle prices as the market moves toward peak seasonal demand.

Related Stories
Lean Ground Beef, fresh parsley, and cumin are formed into meatballs and served in flatbreads for a light and fresh summer main dish.
These Easy Roast Beef Sliders are perfect for potlucks and parties, or a quick and easy dinner main dish you can prepare in advance. Thinly sliced Deli Roast Beef is sandwiched between rolls and baked with cheese until golden and delicious.
This quick and easy beef recipe comes together in under 30 minutes and celebrates peak-season summer produce.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Improving dairy prices could support stronger milk checks later this year.
Smaller beekeepers may find opportunities despite ongoing colony health challenges.
Technology returns depend on management, not just adoption.
The sugar policy debate affects prices, trade, and farm stability.
Strong feedlot demand keeps beef-on-dairy calf premiums elevated.
Cattle producers face mounting pressure as U.S.-Mexico trade talks resume, but expanding drought, rising input costs, and policy work to improve the long-term industry outlook.