NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD News) — China’s new-crop soybean purchases are drawing fresh attention as traders watch whether Beijing follows through on another U.S. purchase commitment.
Dr. Fred Gale, a retired USDA economist, notes that USDA announced June 18 that China bought 4.9 million bushels of soybeans for the 2026/27 crop year. The sale starts market tracking of China’s reported 918.6 million-bushel annual commitment for 2026 through 2028.
The 2025 commitment shows why timing matters. China agreed to buy roughly 440.9 million bushels late last year, but only about half was sold by the original December target.
Sales later reached about 439.5 million bushels by mid-June. Physical shipments lagged sales by roughly six weeks, while Chinese import arrivals lagged nearly two months.
The uncertainty now is how the 2026 pledge will be measured, whether by sales, shipments, arrivals, calendar year, or marketing year. That distinction could shape soybean market expectations.
