Food Inflation Forecast Keeps Pressure on Household Budgets

Higher beef prices continue to support food inflation, while egg prices have fallen as production rebounds.

WASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD News) — Increasing food prices are keeping pressure on grocery budgets and food demand.

USDA’s Economic Research Service says all food prices were 3.1 percent higher in May than a year earlier. Grocery prices rose 2.7 percent, while restaurant and foodservice prices increased 3.5 percent.

The agency, in its latest Food Price Outlook, now forecasts that all food prices will rise 3.2 percent in 2026. Food-at-home prices are projected up 2.8 percent, while food-away-from-home prices are expected to climb 3.6 percent.

Beef remains one of the strongest pressure points. Retail beef and veal prices were 12.9 percent higher than last year, with tight cattle supplies and strong demand still supporting prices.

Egg prices are moving the other direction. Retail egg prices were 35.2 percent lower than a year ago as production recovers from avian influenza losses.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Producers should track retail food inflation because consumer price pressure can shape grocery demand, restaurant traffic, and commodity markets.
Tony St. James, RFD News Markets Specialist

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

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