CHICAGO, ILLINOIS (RFD NEWS) — U.S. cotton markets are adjusting to a major shift as China sharply reduces purchases, raising questions about whether the world’s largest textile producer will remain a dependable export customer. The change carries significant implications for producers because more than 80 percent of U.S. cotton production relies on export demand.
University of Tennessee economist Dr. Andrew Muhammad reports that China’s imports of U.S. cotton fell dramatically in 2025, with purchase value dropping from $1.5 billion to $0.2 billion — an 85 percent decline — while volumes fell from 0.8 million metric tons to 0.1 million metric tons. China had accounted for nearly 30 percent of U.S. cotton exports between 2020 and 2024, making the contraction especially impactful for global trade flows.
The decline reflects more than trade tensions. China has expanded domestic cotton production, reduced reliance on imports, and drawn down state stockpiles accumulated over the past decade. Domestic output has risen more than 30 percent since 2021, allowing its textile sector to rely increasingly on local fiber supplies.
Operationally, U.S. exporters redirected shipments elsewhere. Cotton exports to non-China destinations increased 32 percent in value and 51 percent in volume in 2025, partially offsetting the loss of Chinese demand.
Across all suppliers — including Brazil, India, and Australia — shipments to China declined sharply, signaling a broader structural shift rather than a U.S.-specific trade dispute.
Farmers are navigating weather volatility and tight margins as early planting decisions take shape across the country. From geopolitical developments to fluctuating input costs, several factors are influencing the spring outlook.
Lewis Williamson with HTS Commodities joined us on Tuesday’s Market Day Report to share what he is monitoring as planting season approaches.
In his interview with RFD NEWS, Williamson said market participants are closely watching global events, input pricing trends, and overall demand signals as growers weigh risk and opportunity heading into spring. Weather remains a key factor, with conditions varying widely across production regions.
Despite winter snowfall in parts of the country, drought concerns persist in some areas, continuing to impact river levels along the Mississippi River system. Williamson discussed how transportation challenges and water levels could influence basis levels and grain movement as the season progresses.
He also shared what he’s hearing from producers regarding potential acreage shifts, noting that planting decisions are being shaped by margin pressure, crop insurance considerations, and overall market signals.
