NASHVILLE, TENN. (RFD-TV) — U.S. farm exports took a sharp hit this year, with sales down by more than half through the first eight months of 2025. New data show U.S. ag exports to China fell 54 percent, wiping out more than $7 billion in value. Soybeans led the losses, down nearly $3 billion, while cotton shipments fell almost 90 percent. Grain exports collapsed across the board, with corn and wheat sales nearly disappearing. Beef and pork exports also declined, as China cut feed demand and bought from South America.
Despite China’s purchases dropping sharply this year, new export data released this week by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) shows that even slight buying activity can still move markets.
Other USDA export data shows a spike in soybean sales in mid-November, including the first Chinese purchases of the marketing year. That week marked the season’s largest soybean sales, with strong corn sales as well. But analysts like Brian Hoops with Midwest Market Solutions said it all came down to timing.
“We have a lot of catch-up data that we could talk about — weekly export sales for the weekend of November 20 have been released,” Hoops said. “It’s, I think, noteworthy to say that this was by far and away the marking year high for soybeans that included the first Chinese sales of the year. We learned that 85.5 million bushels of soybeans were sold that week, and corn was over 72.6 million bushels. Really good numbers there, and the week was only 13.3. But we also had Commitment of Traders [data] for that period, almost exactly the same week, which showed that, for that week, funds were at a new all-time record long in the soybean complex. And this is the week that soybeans actually peaked out right around November 18.”
South American Crops Challenge Record U.S. Corn, Soybean Harvest
Global grain markets are adjusting as Brazil is projected to post record soybean exports in the 2025–26 marketing year, helping offset weaker shipments from the United States and Argentina. A bumper Brazilian harvest and strong demand from China are reshaping global supply dynamics, while U.S. exports face trade uncertainty and Argentina continues to deal with production setbacks.
South American crop forecasts are also pointing to record harvests for both corn and soybeans, keeping traders focused on weather developments and their potential impact on global markets. Lewis Williamson with HTS Commodities joined us on Tuesday’s Market Day Report to provide a grain market outlook as the year winds down.
In his conversation with RFD-TV News, Williamson discussed what he is watching as markets approach the end of 2025, including shifting export flows and South American production expectations. He also addressed domestic considerations, sharing insights into whether concerns are emerging about tight grain storage and transportation in the United States.
Corn Exports Stand Out Among Slumping U.S. Grain Sales
Looking ahead, the weather in South America and limited farmer selling here at home could shape how prices move into the new year. Outside of China, strong U.S. corn exports are emerging as a bright spot, even as prices struggle to find direction. Export sales for cornare running well ahead of last year, putting the current marketing year on pace for one of its strongest export totals in years.
Agricultural Economist Joe Janzen with the University of Illinois said demand has helped tighten supplies, but other factors are still limiting price movement.
“We’re looking at an incredibly strong year for U.S. corn exports — now, 3.2 billion bushels of corn exports are estimated for this marketing year, 2025–2026,” Janzen said. “That’s a really strong pace. The adjustment the USDA made kind of checks out with where we’re at in terms of corn exports thus far. We’re well ahead of last year’s pace, and the number reflects, basically, the increase we’ve already seen in export sales this year. So, that’s kind of the good news in the report. Nothing else really changed on the corn balance sheet. It looks like corn supplies are getting tighter in the United States, but I think we’ve got to think about what other changes might be made to this balance sheet as we look forward into the new year.”
Production adjustments and feed demand could shift the balance sheet in the months ahead.
“So, a couple of things. I think a lot of people are expecting that when USDA and the National Ag Statistics Service reconcile their final production numbers for 2025, we’re going to see a slightly smaller corn crop than is currently on the books. So that’s part of it. And then I think the other part is lower U.S. feed use. A lot of U.S. feed use would be to feed animals that we bring across from Mexico into the United States. Those animals aren’t coming across due to some of the trade restrictions in that sector. And so, we’re going to see, you know—I would think—lower feeding numbers. USDA has projected a very healthy increase in cattle feeding for this marketing year that I don’t think is playing out in terms of the numbers we’re seeing in the Cattle on Feed Report and other reports out of the livestock sector.”
The next Cattle on Feed Report is set for release this Friday.
