KC Fed: Livestock Strength Offsets Continued Weakness Across Crop Sector

Strong cattle markets are masking ongoing financial stress across crop agriculture.

A Scottish Highland Cow standing in front of a fall vista in Vermont.

Greenfield Highland Beef, FarmHER Janet Seward (FarmHER Season 5, Ep. 23)

Photo by Marji Guyler-Alaniz/FarmHER, Inc.

KANSAS CITY, Mo. (RFD NEWS) — U.S. farm income conditions remained uneven through 2025 as strong livestock markets supported revenues while crop producers continued facing lower prices and tightening margins, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s Fourth Quarter Agricultural Bulletin (PDF Version).

Average agricultural commodity prices finished 2025 about 5 percent below levels at the start of the year despite strong cattle markets. Higher cattle prices alone contributed roughly three percentage points to overall agricultural price support, but declines in corn, milk, broilers, and eggs pulled the broader index lower. Crop revenues declined for a third consecutive year as large production weighed on prices across grains and oilseeds.

The livestock sector provided the primary financial offset. Higher cattle sales and modest gains in hog, turkey, and egg receipts lifted overall farm income nearly 20 percent above 2024 levels. Domestic demand for agricultural products remained solid, although exports softened due largely to weaker soybean shipments.

Credit conditions gradually weakened during the year, but broader financial stress remained limited. Farm debt levels held steady, loan delinquency rates changed little, and farmland values stayed resilient, helping stabilize balance sheets despite weaker profitability for crop producers.

Looking ahead, Federal Reserve analysts indicate that subdued crop profitability could continue to pressure credit conditions if commodity prices fail to recover, even as livestock markets remain comparatively strong.

Related Stories
USDA released the November WASDE Report on Friday, the first supply-and-demand estimate to drop since September, just before the 43-day government shutdown.
Expanded aerial capacity strengthens the U.S.–Mexico buffer against screwworm, providing cattle producers with stronger protection heading into winter and reducing risk to herds along the southern tier.
AFBF economist Faith Parum breaks down the potential impact of the proposed policy change to allow year-round sales of E15 biofuel.
Learn the conditions farmers must meet to qualify for this new three-year tax deferral on farmland sales, how much it could save, and other details to consider.
Some sustainability shifts are not particularly challenging and can be implemented with resources already available to farmers and ranchers on their operations.
FD-TV’s own Tammi Arender caught up with Gregg Doud, President and CEO of the National Milk Producers Federation.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

U.S. soybean farmers are growing increasingly frustrated by Argentina’s gains in Chinese grain contracts and Trump’s pledge of economic support for the South American ally.
The USDA is moving to close the farm trade gap through promotion, missions, and stronger export financing.
Estate tax relief reduces pressure, but succession planning remains the critical challenge for farm families.
Fewer placements and historically low marketings point to tighter cattle supplies ahead, with Nebraska and Kansas gaining ground as Texas feedlots face supply pressure and the threat of New World Screwworm.
Farmers should anticipate continued upward pressure on farm labor costs and monitor policy changes that may further impact hiring decisions.
Cotton farmers should weigh potential PLC payments against STAX coverage and act before the September 30 deadline.