Market Lull: Excess grain supplies are impacting prices. What could that mean for spring planting?

Total Farm Marketing’s Bryan Doherty expects to see some shifts in spring planting now that grain markets are in a lull driven by an excess in supply.

Experts with Total Farm Marketing say grain markets are in a lull driven by an excess in supplies.

“That’s what you have when you have a bigger supply year, and you’ve got low prices, and the money flow continues to sell rallies — we haven’t seen any change in that. There’s not enough weather in the Southern Hemisphere to capture the spirit of buyers to jump in and aggressively purchase, so you end up with a year like this, where the market has to chew through supply. So, end users buy only as needed; farmers got a lot to sell; the end user knows it, so they’re not going to chase the right now.”
Bryan Doherty, Total Farm Marketing

According to Bryan Doherty with Total Farm Marketing, this will change once the market can find a bottom. He shares what it means for spring planting acres:

“Right now, if you look at where the price of November beans is divided by December corn price, it’s 2.5. So, that would tell us we’re going to switch some acres to beans. But remember last year we switched four million acres out of beans? So there should be a natural progression back into beans to get farmers more into the rotational period.”
Bryan Doherty, Total Farm Marketing

Total Farm Marketing does not expect a battle for acres this year. Rather, they expect it will be more of a “who can shed acres” situation.


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