Mississippi River Decline Squeezes Grain Shipments and Basis Levels

Persistently low Mississippi River levels are turning logistics challenges into pricing risks — tightening margins for grain producers and exporters across the heartland.

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — Water levels along the Mississippi River have fallen to historic lows again this fall — throttling barge traffic and raising freight costs just as the Midwest harvest reaches full stride.

Gauges at St. Louis and Memphis are near record lows, forcing towboats to run lighter and with fewer barges per tow. For farmers moving corn and soybeans to export channels, that means slower flows, higher freight, and weaker local cash bids.

The American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) reports that the river depth at St. Louis recently dropped by more than 22 feet since midsummer, and levels near Memphis approached -5.5 feet, with forecasts of further decline. Southbound grain shipments have plunged roughly 79 percent since early harvest, and soybean movement fell nearly 90 percent as drafts were reduced. Barge costs have surged, erasing much of the price advantage Midwest farmers usually enjoy versus rail or Gulf competitors.

With the Mississippi handling nearly half of all U.S. corn, soybean, and wheat exports, exporters warn that the squeeze could open the door for Brazil and Argentina as the U.S. struggles to maintain its pace. Until rains return, producers face wider basis discounts, longer delivery windows, and mounting storage pressure heading into winter.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Persistently low Mississippi River levels are turning logistics challenges into pricing risks — tightening margins for grain producers and exporters across the heartland.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Expert
Related Stories
A rich, old-fashioned bread pudding made with brandy, raisins, and vanilla—baked until golden and full of warm Southern flavor, just like Justin liked it!
“South central Kansas is really behind schedule...”
Tender beef shanks slow-baked with carrots, potatoes, and onions in a wine-spiked Cajun sauce—sealed in a cooking bag to lock in every bit of bold, savory flavor.
Justin Wilson’s Apple Cobbler is pure Southern comfort—sweet, spiced, pecan-crusted, and baked until bubbly and golden. It’ll knock your socks off, I garontee!

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Lewie Pugh, with the Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association, joined us on Monday’s Market Day Report to share his perspective on what the bill could mean for truckers.
With port fees now lifted, economists believe that could help ease tensions. However, American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) economist Faith Parum said trade deals with smaller Asian countries are helping stabilize the ag economy.
Ohio AgNet’s Dusty Sonnenberg takes us up in the cab with a popcorn farmer bringing in this year’s haul.
Here is a regional snapshot of harvest pace, crop conditions, logistics, and livestock economics across U.S. agriculture for the week of Monday, Nov. 10, 2025.
The DOJ’s new antitrust probe could reshape beef-packer behavior, with potential impacts on fed-cattle prices, processor margins, and long-term competition across the supply chain.
The Senate has cleared a path to reopen USDA, but full restoration of services depends on House approval and the President’s signature.