Mississippi River Decline Squeezes Grain Shipments and Basis Levels

Persistently low Mississippi River levels are turning logistics challenges into pricing risks — tightening margins for grain producers and exporters across the heartland.

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — Water levels along the Mississippi River have fallen to historic lows again this fall — throttling barge traffic and raising freight costs just as the Midwest harvest reaches full stride.

Gauges at St. Louis and Memphis are near record lows, forcing towboats to run lighter and with fewer barges per tow. For farmers moving corn and soybeans to export channels, that means slower flows, higher freight, and weaker local cash bids.

The American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) reports that the river depth at St. Louis recently dropped by more than 22 feet since midsummer, and levels near Memphis approached -5.5 feet, with forecasts of further decline. Southbound grain shipments have plunged roughly 79 percent since early harvest, and soybean movement fell nearly 90 percent as drafts were reduced. Barge costs have surged, erasing much of the price advantage Midwest farmers usually enjoy versus rail or Gulf competitors.

With the Mississippi handling nearly half of all U.S. corn, soybean, and wheat exports, exporters warn that the squeeze could open the door for Brazil and Argentina as the U.S. struggles to maintain its pace. Until rains return, producers face wider basis discounts, longer delivery windows, and mounting storage pressure heading into winter.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Persistently low Mississippi River levels are turning logistics challenges into pricing risks — tightening margins for grain producers and exporters across the heartland.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Expert
Related Stories
Louisiana Lt. Gov. Billy Nungesser took time to visit our Nashville studio and discuss his state’s integral support of CMA Fest with longtime friend, RFD-TV’s own Tammi Arender.
Community gardens are believed to increase fruit and vegetable intake in an area, provide educational opportunities, and even lead to community beautification.
Since the Tennessee Main Street program’s inception in 2010, 78 rural commercial districts have been improved. These 12 new additions bring that total number up to 90.
One drawback of co-equal ownership in estate planning is the right of partition of a co-owner. That’s a particularly acute problem when parents have both on-farm and off-farm heirs.
A family settlement agreement is one method to resolve financial conflicts among family members over assets—if executed properly, that is.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

ock NH3 early, track China’s Oct. 15 call and any U.S. Russia-UAN action, stay nimble on urea, and budget cautiously for high-priced phosphate.
Expect business-as-usual for most container exports.
Cade Fiske’s approach embodies the spirit of the FFA — blending education, leadership, and innovation to inspire the future of agriculture.
The Washington Tree Fruit Association says this is not surprising and notes the USDA has offered a lifeline to growers while they transition away from the cannery market.
Searches for “struggle meal” hit a record high in September, and #strugglemeals posts are climbing on Instagram and TikTok, reflecting a wave of budget-cooking content.