LUBBOCK, TEXAS (RFD NEWS) — Wholesale dairy prices sent mixed signals late in 2025, with falling cheese and butter values offset by firmer prices for nonfat dry milk and dry whey — a combination that points to tighter margins for many dairy operations heading into 2026.
U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) data show weaker pricing for major fat-based products while protein markets remain comparatively supported.
From mid-December to early January, prices for 40-pound Cheddar blocks dropped more than 13 cents to $1.41 per pound, while wholesale butter fell nearly 9 cents to $1.43. In contrast, nonfat dry milk and dry whey prices increased modestly. CME spot prices generally tracked those trends, with cheese and butter averaging below recent USDA wholesale levels.
International markets showed similar divergence. Oceania butter and skim milk powder prices declined from November to December, while export prices for Cheddar cheese and European dry whey strengthened. U.S. butter and cheese remained competitive globally, though U.S. prices for nonfat dry milk and dry whey exceeded international benchmarks.
Supply-side pressure continues to build. November milk production (PDF Version) rose 4.5 percent year over year on higher cow numbers and productivity, while the all-milk price fell to $19.70 per hundredweight. USDA forecasts 2026 milk production at 234.3 billion pounds, with lower Class III prices expected to weigh on returns.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Mixed product pricing and rising milk supplies suggest margin management will remain critical as 2026 unfolds.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist
A new maritime biofuels coalition aims to position ocean shipping as a significant growth market for U.S. crops and waste-derived fuels.
December 17, 2025 07:00 AM
·
Larger operations maintain cost advantages, while softer equipment sales suggest producers are pacing machinery upgrades amid tighter margins.
December 17, 2025 06:00 AM
·
Transportation access, legal disputes, and fertilizer freight costs will directly influence input pricing and grain movement in 2026.
December 16, 2025 01:37 PM
·
Analysts say that while low-income households are facing financial pressures, other middle- and higher-income consumers are helping fill the gap for retail beef demand.
December 16, 2025 12:44 PM
·
Despite China’s sharp drop in grain purchases this year, new USDA export data this week shows that even some buying activity from the trade giant still moves the markets.
December 16, 2025 12:20 PM
·
Corn and wheat exports remain supportive, but weaker soybean demand — especially from China — continues to pressure oilseed markets.
December 16, 2025 12:08 PM
·
Tim and Sharyn Abbott of the Music City Celebration Sale recap the weekend’s premier auction, which drew top dairy breeders and buyers to Nashville again this year from across North America.
December 16, 2025 11:54 AM
·
The bill to once again allow schools to offer whole milk and 2% milk will now go to President Trump for approval.
December 16, 2025 11:41 AM
·
China’s pullback is hitting core U.S. commodities hard, reshaping export expectations for soybeans, cotton, grains, and livestock.
December 16, 2025 07:00 AM
·
