Policy Uncertainty Adds Risk to Farm Planning Decisions

Policy awareness is becoming part of everyday risk management.

2026BrandGuidep42-CombineInBrownField_getty-images-bJ9v3lHBcLQ-unsplash_1920x1080.jpg

Getty Images

LAKELAND, Fla. (RFD NEWS) — Government programs and policy debates are expected to heavily influence farm profitability heading into 2026.

AgAmerica Lending notes recent federal aid — including bridge assistance payments — may provide short-term relief, but does not resolve long-term margin pressure. Meanwhile, unresolved Farm Bill negotiations leave producers without clarity on future safety net programs.

Regulatory changes also remain in focus. Proposed WOTUS revisions, labor policy adjustments, and increased antitrust scrutiny of input suppliers could all alter operating costs and risk exposure.

Trade conditions add another variable. Export demand may improve slightly, but China remains unpredictable, and tariff policy could affect fertilizer and machinery expenses.

Together, these factors mean marketing decisions increasingly depend on Washington policy as much as supply and demand fundamentals.

Related Stories
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent last week said an announcement would be made on Tuesday. However, that self-imposed deadline has now passed.
Plan for a cooler global trade market in 2026 with tighter margins on exports, potential rate shifts, and premiums for reliable deliveries into Asian and African growth markets.
Crop insurance remains a vital tool for managing climate-driven risk.
RFD-TV Farm Legal and Tax Expert Roger McEowen with the Washburn School of Law dives into a “potpourri” of ag tax and law-related issues in his latest Firm to Farm blog post.
Dr. Todd Davis, Chief Economist with the Indiana Farm Bureau, shares a snapshot of his state’s harvest conditions and insights from producers.
Lewis Williamson, from HTS Commodities, joined us to share insights on the farm economy from producers in the field.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Farmland outlook is tracking closely with producer confidence, investment appetite, and financial expectations.
StoneX’s Josh Linville discusses USDA’s efforts to boost domestic fertilizer production and his outlook on supply and prices.
Landowners interested in protecting working ground through an easement now have another funding window open until the end of May.
Domestic demand policy may play a larger role if export competition continues to limit price recovery.
Beef is leading the decline as slaughter drops and supplies tighten.
Ethanol demand held together last week, but lower production and thinner stocks put more focus on export strength. Production capacity is also strengthening over time and benefiting soybean farmers.