NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — Fertilizer availability and pricing could swing sharply if new U.S. sanctions on Russia take effect, with the impact varying widely by product. Russia is a major exporter of nitrogen and potash, and any disruption would immediately be reflected in dealer inventories and farm budgets this fall.
According to Josh Linville with StoneX, the most significant vulnerability is UAN: the global market is small, western buyers dominate demand, and the U.S. relies heavily on Russian tons.
A U.S.-only block would likely drive UAN values higher and keep them elevated until trade returns to normal. Urea would likely see a short-lived price shock; Russia could redirect flows to Brazil and India, easing the spike within a few months. NH3 (ammonia) appears to be the least exposed, with no Russian tons flowing to the U.S. and exports still below pre-war levels. Phosphate effects on the U.S. should be minimal due to existing countervailing duties, unless a broad global cutoff occurs. Potash poses a moderate risk—Canada can backfill, but coastal regions could feel it first.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Prepare for acute UAN risk and a brief urea shock; maintain steady ammonia and phosphate plans and monitor potash basis on the coasts.
Tidal Grow Agri-Science joins us to celebrate Global Fertilizer Day, sharing how innovation continues to drive American agriculture forward.
October 13, 2025 12:20 PM
·
The American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) is urging Congress and the Trump Administration to act quickly on behalf of American agriculture.
October 13, 2025 11:42 AM
·
Better yield measurement means fairer grids, more precise breeding targets, and more dollars for truly efficient cattle.
October 13, 2025 10:45 AM
·
Escalating U.S.–China tensions threaten soybean demand as farm finances are stretched further.
October 13, 2025 10:40 AM
·
ock NH3 early, track China’s Oct. 15 call and any U.S. Russia-UAN action, stay nimble on urea, and budget cautiously for high-priced phosphate.
October 09, 2025 05:06 PM
·
CoBank Lead Grains Economist Tanner Ehmke joins us to share insight and concerns over current grain storage capacity as export demand lags.
October 09, 2025 01:36 PM
·
Farm CPA Paul Neiffer shares his perspective on the uncertain outlook of federal farm relief and the Farm Bill, which may not materialize until the government shutdown ends.
October 09, 2025 01:29 PM
·
Large animal veterinarian Dr. Rosalyn Biggs with Oklahoma State University warns producers may not be prepared for the real threat of New World Screwworm.
October 09, 2025 01:10 PM
·
AFBF Associate Economist Samantha Ayoub joins us to dive into H-2A visa program changes and what can be done to ease the pressure on producers.
October 09, 2025 12:11 PM
·
