NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — Pork producers are tapping the brakes on expansion as margins improve, but uncertainty persists. Rabobank expects the global sow herd to decline in 2026, led by China’s plan to cut a million sows — roughly 2.5 percent of its base — trimming global numbers by about one percent.
With fewer new barns planned, the emphasis shifts to productivity, herd health, and carcass weights, while Brazil’s continued growth partially offsets China’s pullback. Trade is stabilizing but uneven.
Global pork shipments are up about three percent year-over-year through June, and Rabobank sees 2025 ending at or slightly above 2024 levels. Brazil is set to lift its market share from 12% to 15% on broader access and diversified buyers, while the US and the European Union (EU) navigate geopolitical friction with key markets, including China.
Animal disease remains the wild card. African Swine Fever (ASF) pressured Vietnam in 2025 — over 970 cases and more than 100,000 pigs lost — with fresh detections in Romania and Germany. Prices are firm where inventories tightened — EU up 10% YTD, North America 21% — while China’s prices slid 42% year over year on efficiency gains. Limited beef and chicken supplies support pork, but inflation may cause greater concerns in the near term.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Pork producers should prioritize herd health and productivity gains, hedge feed and hogs selectively, and watch Brazil’s export pace and China’s sow policy for price signals.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Expert
Early indications suggest the U.S. cattle industry may be nearing the end of its liquidation phase. Oklahoma State University livestock economist Dr. Derrell Peel says the industry could be at or near the cyclical low.
January 29, 2026 12:44 PM
·
Beef x Dairy cattle with strong genetics and documentation are earning prices comparable to native feeders.
January 29, 2026 08:00 AM
·
USDA Undersecretary for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs Luke Lindberg joined us with a recap of the Malaysia trade mission and a look at USDA’s broader trade strategy moving forward.
January 28, 2026 01:49 PM
·
Mike Steenhoek of the Soy Transportation Coalition shares how extreme winter weather is affecting the ag transportation network and what producers should keep in mind as conditions slowly improve.
January 28, 2026 01:36 PM
·
Mixed product pricing and rising milk supplies suggest margin management will remain critical as 2026 unfolds.
January 28, 2026 06:00 AM
·
Marilyn Schlake with the UNL Department of Agricultural Economics joined us for a closer look at the evolving role of livestock sale barns.
January 27, 2026 12:19 PM
·
