South America Sees Gains in Key Markets as U.S.-China Trade Talks Resume

China is making strategic moves by purchasing more soybeans from Argentina and may soon follow the EU and reopen its market to Brazilian chicken exports.

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV)—China’s top trade negotiator met with leaders from the U.S. Midwest this week, fueling speculation that farm exports could be a key component of a trade deal. But with no soybean purchases on the books yet from this year’s harvest, the markets remain on edge as talks continue.

Trade analysts anticipate President Trump will want China to commit to buying more American agricultural goods, among other items. However, the international trade heavyweight is turning to South American suppliers to replace key commodity exports from the U.S., in its ongoing fight against President Donald Trump’s controversial trade plan, which emphasizes retaliatory tariffs.

Now, U.S. crop farmers are scrambling to find new buyers while facing record harvests and low prices, and await billions in aid promised by the USDA as they try to weather skyrocketing input costs like fertilizer, ongoing labor issues, and worry over rising demand for grain storage and diesel fuel as fall harvest kicks off.

Argentina: Growing Consistency in Commodity Crops

China is turning to Argentina for soybeans, booking at least 10 cargoes after Buenos Aires scrapped grain export taxes. The move boosts Argentina’s competitiveness and deals another blow to U.S. farmers, who are already struggling with low prices and are shut out of their top market.

Corn planting is moving quickly in Argentina as farmers rush to beat incoming storms. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange says just over six percent of the country’s projected 19 million acres of corn have already been planted. That’s part of what’s expected to be the second-largest corn crop in Argentina’s history, with just over 19 million acres planted.

Meanwhile, wheat fields are holding steady. Despite some disease caused by excess moisture, more than 97 percent of the crop remains in normal to excellent condition. Wheat harvest will begin in November.

Brazil: Poultry Sector Progress and Removing Soybean Moratorium

Meanwhile, China has begun auditing Brazil’s sanitary controls in the poultry sector, seen as a key step toward lifting its own ban on Brazilian poultry imports. This comes as the European Union reopened its market to Brazilian chicken, lifting a ban imposed after a bird flu outbreak in Brazil.

A Brazilian judge has upheld a moratorium on soybeans grown on recently deforested land in the Amazon. The ruling rejects an appeal from a major farm group seeking to overturn the injunction.

The two-decade-old pact, backed by several global traders, prohibits companies from purchasing soy linked to deforestation after 2008. Farmers argue the deal is unfair and limits their access to markets. Brazil’s environment ministry and prosecutors are defending the measure as crucial for protecting the rainforest.

Related Stories
Strong seasonal demand and manageable production growth continue to support poultry markets.
Securing Critical Water Resources for South Texas Agriculture
RealAg Radio host Shaun Haney says farmers there are already sounding the alarm about what this could mean for the future of ag research.
Clearer 45Z rules favor U.S. oilseeds, but final RFS volumes remain critical to locking in demand.
Economists are also closely watching how policy decisions in Washington could influence markets moving forward. Analysts say deferred futures for corn, soybeans, and wheat suggest markets are operating near break-even levels, not at prices that would encourage expanded production.
Strong rail demand and higher fuel costs raise transportation risk even as barge and export flows stabilize.
Traders say that shift could eventually prompt the USDA to scale back soybean export projections, noting the outlook differs greatly for other grain commodities.
Record milk output looks strong today, but shrinking replacement numbers mean future supply adjustments could be faster and more volatile.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

“American soybean farmers—who are already reeling from your sweeping tariffs—deserve better.”
FarmHER Laura Adams raises cattle in Georgia, overcoming family tragedy with the help of Farm Dog of the Year, Skippy.
The shutdown is yet another hurdle for producers navigating a challenging year marked by high input costs, volatile markets, and uncertain trade conditions.
Farmers will need to closely monitor forecasts if the regulatory changes are implemented, as temperature cutoffs will replace fixed spray dates.