Livestock economists are not expecting much change in next year’s cattle market.
Experts are Rabobank say producers are holding back replacement heifers as they continue fighting drought and high feed prices. Right now, researchers are focused on studying total female cattle slaughter numbers, and they estimate 2022 will end with 17.6 million head of cows and heifers slaughtered. They warn those numbers could have long-lasting implications, including sacrificing gains in next year’s cow herd.
Without better precipitation over the winter and into next spring, researchers say the pattern will likely continue into 2024’s cow herd.
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Current estimates are already hovering around 80 weeks.
Corn demand received another boost last week as ethanol production climbed to a five-week high.
Chicago Fed lenders report producers are carrying more operating debt as repayment rates continue weakening across the Midwest.
Cattle markets continue supporting rural land values, but lenders say repayment rates and carryover debt are becoming a larger focus.
StoneX analyst Josh Linville says global supply risks and continued dependence on imported urea are keeping fertilizer markets on edge.
The lockout has not yet signaled a major disruption in the cattle market, but processing reliability remains important in a tight beef supply chain.
