Trade
Plan for a cooler global trade market in 2026 with tighter margins on exports, potential rate shifts, and premiums for reliable deliveries into Asian and African growth markets.
George Baird, with the American Society of Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers (ASFMRA), joins us with updates on how this year’s rice harvest is shaping up.
Dr. Todd Davis, Chief Economist with the Indiana Farm Bureau, shares a snapshot of his state’s harvest conditions and insights from producers.
Market analyst Kevin Huddleston said news of trade deals could rebound cotton prices in late fall, and producers need to be ready to strike deals.
Lewis Williamson, from HTS Commodities, joined us to share insights on the farm economy from producers in the field.
Despite tariffs having a less significant impact on exports, corn producers struggle with tariff-related increases on inputs, which complicates their bottom line.
Prepare for acute UAN risk and a brief urea shock; maintain steady ammonia and phosphate plans, and monitor potash basis on the coasts.
“A government shutdown impacts all Americans and has serious consequences, including for farmers. It just adds additional uncertainty, disrupts critical services.”
Agricultural exports continue to be a key contributor to rural employment. However, rural businesses still struggle to fill numerous job openings.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated this week that the government will intervene to help, following China’s withdrawal from the U.S. soybean market. One trader says the industry will remain in a holding pattern until Tuesday.
University of Illinois Ag Economist Gary Schnitker says early projections indicate soybeans will be more profitable than corn in 2026.
“In the first six months of 2025, 181 Chapter 12 bankruptcies were filed nationwide.”
Trump’s upcoming talks raise hopes for U.S. soybeans, but China’s record purchases from Brazil and Argentina show America’s market share remains under heavy pressure.
Imports
RealAg Radio host Shaun Haney explains why the 2026 USMCA review could directly affect dairy access, produce competition, and export reliability for U.S. farmers and ranchers.
Tight feeder supplies and lower placements indicate continued support for the cattle market, with regional impacts heightened in Texas by reduced feeder imports.
Transportation access, legal disputes, and fertilizer freight costs will directly influence input pricing and grain movement in 2026.
Exports
Rail consolidation could affect grain basis, freight rates, and service reliability across major producing regions.
Expanded global trade access boosts long-term export demand potential for U.S. ag products.
For the broader agricultural industry, a railroad antitrust case in Kansas could lead to the dismantling of legacy regulatory shields, creating a more fluid, market-driven transportation grid that prioritizes moving crops efficiently over protecting historic rail monopolies.